The Premier League is back, and with it comes our favourite numbers deep-dive. Expected goals (xG) have rapidly become a staple of football, a metric that simply measures the quality of a team's chance creation — and one of many barometers for success over a season. But across smaller sample sizes, xG allows for quirky takes and interesting trends. So, in our inaugural edition of the Expected Premier League Tables, here is what Matchday 1 told us about all 20 teams.

Brentford's efficiency machine keeps purring

Brentford's 3.9xG against Tottenham is the third most by any team in an opening game of a Premier League season since 2018, and their fourth highest in a top-flight match since returning in 2022. Efficiency, as ever, has been their model: they recorded just 72 shots (worth 11.2xG) across their six opening games and scored 12 goals from just 28 shots on target.

Spurs, meanwhile, recorded their sixth-lowest xG total since the start of 2025-26 with just 0.57, while their xG allowed was the third most since the start of 2023-24 — behind the 6-3 loss to Liverpool (5.6xG) in December 2024 and the 4-1 defeat to Chelsea (4.1xG) in November 2023. Roberto De Zerbi's sides can be prone to conceding multiple big chances if their pressing structure is exploited — his Brighton side allowed 108 goals and 98.6xG across 68 Premier League games — so outscoring opponents will likely be Spurs' best route to wins as they adapt.

Arsenal and the gulf in class

Even on paper, Coventry City's reintroduction to the Premier League after 25 years away — a visit to reigning champions Arsenal — looked daunting. Frank Lampard's team waltzed to the 2025-26 Championship title on the back of a league-high 1.9xG per 90, but at the Emirates they managed about a tenth of that, with just 0.2xG. Seventy-five per cent of that came from a Jack Rudoni header in the 86th minute that was easily saved by David Raya. Arsenal's 1.9xG was their most in an opening league game since the 3-0 win over Fulham in September 2020, with three goals from open play this time.

City's set-piece saviour and Bournemouth's wastefulness

Title rivals Manchester City needed a set piece to draw level against Bournemouth, with Marc Guehi curiously unmarked in the box to score — half an hour after he missed a 0.77xG chance from a corner, heading wide. City had just 13 shots, their second-fewest in an opening game since 2018-19. Bournemouth, for their part, underperformed their xG in each of their five Premier League seasons between 2019 and 2026, and it showed again: they had the top two xG underperformers in 2025-26, with Evanilson and David Brooks scoring seven combined goals from 16.9xG. That was marginally offset by Eli Junior Kroupi scoring 13 times from 8.4xG and Antoine Semenyo netting 10 times from 6.7xG before moving to City in January. In Marco Rose's first game in charge, Bournemouth managed just five shots worth 0.65xG, but Evanilson turned provider for Marcus Tavernier, who became just the second player to score against City on the opening weekend since 2018 (after Son Heung-min in August 2021).

Brighton's Matchday 1 habit

Brighton & Hove Albion account for two of the top four entries for most xG recorded on Matchday 1 since 2018. They put up 3.8xG against Aston Villa on the way to four goals, following the 4.0 they managed in a 4-1 win over Luton Town in August 2023. Fabian Hurzeler's side also created the two best chances of the weekend: the shot leading to Maxim De Cuyper's goal was worth 0.96xG, while Jack Hinshelwood's effort for the first of his double was worth 0.87xG.

For Aston Villa, this was nothing new. They created only 0.2xG in last season's 0-0 draw with Newcastle, when Ezri Konsa was sent off, and slightly improved to 0.27xG this time with Joao Gomes dismissed late in the first half. Their three matches after the Newcastle draw saw 2.8xG created and no goals scored. With Arsenal visiting this weekend followed by a trip to Hull City, the going in front of goal might be similarly difficult for Unai Emery's side, especially if striker Ollie Watkins remains unavailable.

Newcastle's transition threats and Liverpool's open play

Newcastle United's first game under Matthias Jaissle brought positives in attack, especially in transition — their first league game with two fast-break goals since a 3-0 win over Leicester City in April 2025. Their pace feasted on a Liverpool side far too open in midfield, though Andoni Iraola's side responded with 27 shots and 2.98xG — better than in 36 of 38 games last season. Cody Gakpo's long-range fizzer was worth all of 0.04xG, making it the joint-best finish of the weekend on xG terms, level with Anton Stach's late free-kick winner for Leeds United against Nottingham Forest.

Leeds, Forest and the fine margins

None of Leeds' 11 efforts were worth more than 0.09xG, while their 0.47xG was worse than in all but three games in 2025-26 — signs of how hard Oliver Glasner's side were to break down. Leeds have prioritised quantity over quality, with Stach's strike their eighth goal from outside the box since returning to the top flight. Forest, meanwhile, had the best chance of that game when Murillo sent Chris Wood through, but the veteran forward snatched at a 0.12xG chance and sent it wide, while Igor Jesus headed an Ola Aina cross wide from a 0.11xG opportunity ten minutes earlier. Morgan Gibbs-White ranked fourth for xG overperformance last season (15 goals from 11.1xG) and Wood was second in 2024-25 (20 goals from 13.4xG) — they may need something similar again.

Palace's chronic underperformance continues

Crystal Palace were the Premier League's serial xG underperformers over the last two seasons, scoring 92 goals in 76 matches from 119.6xG — a negative difference of 27.6, nearly double next-worst Chelsea (-13.4). Pierre Sage's Lens faced similar issues, scoring 42 goals from 53.5xG. Palace faced more of that against Everton, failing to score despite creating 1.96xG, with Jordan Pickford making the weekend's best save from Eddie Nketiah's 0.6xG shot. Jean-Philippe Mateta was guilty of missing two golden first-half chances worth a combined 0.7xG, hitting the post with one and firing over from in front of goal with the other — though creating quality opportunities is an encouraging sign for Sage.

Chelsea's clinical edge; Everton's back-post threat

Chelsea converted three of their four biggest chances in xG terms in the 3-2 win over Fulham, Romeo Lavia's 36th-minute stab the only exception as Bernd Leno made a good sprawling save. What made it more clinical was how little of the ball they had — 38 per cent possession in Xabi Alonso's Premier League managerial bow was their third-lowest since the start of 2024-25 — yet they still managed 18 shots, more than in 32 of 38 games last season. Fulham took advantage of shaky goalkeeping from Robert Sanchez for both their goals, but this was only their second league loss when overperforming their xG by 0.3 or more since 2024-25.

Everton had a contender for goal of the weekend through Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's stunner from a difficult angle, worth just 0.04xG. But Thierno Barry's headed finish from Iliman Ndiaye's cross showed a fruitful strategy for David Moyes' side: since the start of last season, only Chelsea (12.7) have created more xG from back-post crosses than Everton's 8.8. In Barry and Beto, they have two excellent attackers of crosses, combining for 27 headed shots in the league in 2025-26.

Hull's header double and United's shot struggles

Hull City used a similar strategy on their return to the top flight, scoring twice from headers through their centre-backs in a win built on solid defensive foundations — their seventh-best xG overperformance since the start of 2025-26 (+0.99). Manchester United recorded 1.8xG but got just five of 21 shots on target, with eight blocked; their 24 per cent shot accuracy was worse than in 33 of 38 league matches last season, and 16 attempts were worth less than 0.1xG.

Ipswich's debutants and Sunderland's low-quality reliance

Ipswich Town were also successful on their Premier League return, creating marginally more xG (1.8) than their 2025-26 average (1.7) in the win over Sunderland. New signing Emersonn tapped in a 0.77xG chance to get off the mark, while Daizen Maeda could have joined him but got a 0.61xG header horribly wrong. Jack Clarke's late effort, with defenders and goalkeeper Robin Roefs to beat, was worth just 0.05xG but proved the winner. For Sunderland, this was familiar territory — their 17th occasion in 39 league games since 2025-26 with 0.75xG or fewer. Nilson Angulo's free kick was their 15th goal from 0.05xG or less in that time, while Brian Brobbey saw his two best chances blocked by Leif Davis and Marcelino Nunez.