Manchester City open up on 650,000-player database powering squad overhaul
How City’s metrics machine guides recruitment and sales
Inside Manchester City’s sophisticated data operation is a fundamental phrase its experts work towards: "What does it take to win?" In practice the motto is broken down into three sections: identifying players, evaluating them and assessing how the club could improve them, all with a view to enhancing the statistical probability of City winning the Premier League.
Last season the club’s data department projected they would be there or thereabouts in the title race, but their metrics indicated Arsenal were favourites to be champions. They were accurate. This time around City prefer to keep their projections under wraps, but five wins from five Premier League games have prompted predictions from supporters and pundits they will again be the Gunners’ closest challengers.
Reducing risk in the market
City’s devotion to data is at the heart of their efforts to close the gap on Arsenal. The club grades players based on ability, overall characteristics, and the system they play in at their current club and how the manager is asking him and the team to play. Once those four aspects are observed, City’s aim is to understand not just how good the player is but how good he could become at the Etihad.
Since winning the Treble in 2023, City’s squad has undergone a vast overhaul using this approach. Only four players from that historic campaign remain.
City sporting director Hugo Viana told BBC Sport: "Data plays a role in our decision-making, but it is just one part of the overall picture. We know data cannot tell us everything about a player. It cannot fully show a person’s character, mentality or behaviour. That is why we study data insights but focus on the expertise of our scouts and other specialists."
From 650,000 players to a shortlist
The starting point for any new signing is City’s database of 650,000 footballers from around the world. The brief usually starts with a position, with City categorising full-backs, for example, into three types: defensive, those who come inside, and those who play high and wide.
Filters grading overall ability whittle the database to 20-50 names. Juventus full-back Andrea Cambiaso is one player who has been on City’s radar after data highlighted his ability to come inside to build play in midfield and his comfort with both feet. In accordance with data and scouting reports the club decided not to proceed in the previous window, but City’s approach means he will continue to be monitored.
The longlist is cross-referenced with the scouting longlist. Generally there is significant overlap between players identified by data and those already on scouts’ radar. Further refined metrics rank and prioritise the list, then scouts complete diligence to reduce it to a maximum of about six players.
Deeper dives cover injury record, athletic performance and behavioural habits. The information is collated into individual reports called acquisition packs, including a radar chart rating specific on-field metrics.
When Jeremy Doku was signed in 2023, then manager Pep Guardiola wanted a direct winger akin to Leroy Sane because the squad already had Jack Grealish and Riyad Mahrez who preferred to keep the ball and cut inside. Criteria applied included making the box, pressure regains, take-on percentage and opposition-half pressure. Doku’s overall numbers ticked the boxes, although his ‘making the box’ score was among his lowest readings. City say he has improved this rating since his arrival, an example of how data systems help improve existing players.
Acquisition packs also include a utilisation chart recording use over three years, a scouting grade, a current impact score predicting immediate impression, a potential impact score projecting future contribution, and an action value score that positions a player in a league table with City and rival players in a similar role.
Once evaluated, the list is reduced to 2-3 players once City’s valuation is factored in. Data contributes heavily to the price range City believe a player falls in, and the valuation is never a single number. All shortlist players are worked on simultaneously in case circumstances change.
Anderson: forensic analysis of an obvious target
BBC Sport can take you to the core of some of City’s key transfer calls from their three-year squad revamp, including the £116m signing of Elliot Anderson. The 23-year-old had developed into a key player for Nottingham Forest and had cemented his position in the England setup. City fought off other top clubs, including Manchester United, to sign him.
Despite outward obviousness, Anderson’s metrics didn’t necessarily catch the eye, underlining the club’s forensic approach even when a signing looks straightforward. At the start of last season, despite emerging uncertainty over Guardiola’s future, the club knew they would be in the market for at least one central midfielder. They knew Bernardo Silva was leaving while there were doubts over the futures of Rodri and Nico Gonzalez.
The club also paid close attention to Eduardo Camavinga’s metrics in case Real Madrid decided to sell a midfielder, and the sudden emergence of Yan Diomande last season led to City completing checks on him before he joined Real Madrid from RB Leipzig.