Tuchel's leaky England head to Prague as heavy favourites to sink wounded Czechia
Czechia and England both stumbled at the first hurdle of their Nations League campaigns, and neither will want to still be empty-handed with a third of their Group A3 fixtures gone. On Tuesday at Prague's Fortuna Arena, two wounded sides go head-to-head — and the numbers suggest Thomas Tuchel's men hold all the aces, even if their defence is suddenly springing leaks.
England threw away a lead in a five-goal thriller at Wembley on Friday, losing 3-2 to Spain, while Czechia were undone by a vintage Luka Modric display as Croatia left with a 2-1 victory. Both nations sit on zero points, and both managers know this fixture has the feel of a must-win given the thick-and-fast nature of the Nations League calendar.
England firm favourites despite Wembley wobble
For all the hand-wringing after the Spain defeat, the Opta projections make England emphatic favourites in Prague. Tuchel's side are given a 68.8% chance of victory, with a further 18.7% chance of a draw and Czechia rated at just 12.4% to take all three points.
The head-to-head record backs that up: England have lost just one of their last nine meetings with Czechia in all competitions (W6 D2). The caveat is that the defeat came on their last visit to the nation, a 2-1 loss in October 2019.
Only three teams have won consecutive home matches against England this century — Spain (a run of three), France and Sweden (two each) — and Czechia will be looking to add their name to that short and exclusive list.
Tuchel's defensive crisis in numbers
A lot has been made of England's identity during this international break, and it is at the back that Tuchel will be desperate to shore things up — and soon. Against Spain, a Marc Guehi error inside two minutes gifted Lamine Yamal the opener, and after Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane had turned the game around by half-time, momentum swung on a missed Kane penalty before Alex Baena — profiting from Nico O'Reilly's slack pass — and substitute Mikel Oyarzabal secured the points for Spain.
That match was the first time England had made two errors leading to a goal in a competitive game since June 2019 against the Netherlands, also in the Nations League. The wider trend is alarming: England have conceded 13 goals in their last six games, almost double the seven they shipped in Tuchel's first 17 matches in charge. They have conceded at least three goals in each of their last two outings — the 6-4 win over France that secured third place at the World Cup preceded Friday's collapse — having last done so in three consecutive matches back in February 1927.
It is a stark contrast to the start of Tuchel's reign, when England sailed through qualifying for the summer's tournament without conceding a single goal. Their recent wobble means England have now lost two of their last three matches in all competitions — the other being the heartbreaking 2-1 World Cup semi-final defeat to Argentina — as many defeats as in their previous 23 combined. They have not lost consecutive games since June-September 2022, also in the Nations League, against Hungary and Italy.
Bright spots at the other end
While the defence creaks, England's attacking stars keep delivering. Jude Bellingham picked up where he left off at the World Cup: although he did not score against Spain, he set up Gordon's opener and won the second-half penalty. Bellingham has now been involved in nine goals in his last nine international appearances (seven goals, two assists) — more than any other England player since the start of the World Cup.
Gordon, meanwhile, has scored in consecutive appearances for the Three Lions for the first time, having netted against Argentina and Spain.
In midfield, England are without Declan Rice, but Elliot Anderson looks more than capable of holding down the fort. He won possession more times than any other player in the defeat to Spain (13), and since his international debut in September 2025, Anderson has won possession 125 times in 18 matches — no other England player has managed more than 50 in that period.
Czechia look to rebuild home fortress
Czechia's 2-1 defeat to Croatia last time out ended a 19-game unbeaten home run (W14 D5). Modric scored the opening goal, Adam Karabec swiftly equalised, and substitute Marco Pasalic struck the winner. They have not lost consecutive home matches since June 2016, but given their recent form, coach Santi Denia has cause for concern.
Czechia have lost their last two games in all competitions — last losing more consecutively between June and September 2022, when they went down four times in a row. They endured a difficult World Cup, finishing bottom of their group with a single point (D1 L2), and against Croatia they managed only five shots worth 0.9 expected goals (xG), just two of which hit the target. Add eight touches in the opposition box and six offsides, and Denia knows those numbers must improve dramatically if Czechia are to cause England real problems.
Players to watch
Czechia — Adam Karabec: Karabec averages a goal or assist every 89 minutes for his country (three goals, one assist in 355 minutes), and he netted their sole goal in the defeat to Croatia. He was one of just two Czechia players to have a shot on target in that match, while his only touch in the opposition box was the one that produced his goal.
England — Harry Kane: The England captain has netted four goals in six Nations League appearances since the start of the 2024-25 edition — more than he managed across the first three editions of the competition he played in (three in 18 games). Kane has 17 goals in 19 appearances for England under Tuchel, and since the German took charge in March 2025, only Erling Haaland (26), Kylian Mbappe (19) and Oyarzabal (18) have scored more goals in all competitions for European nations.
With England's attack humming and Czechia's confidence dented, Tuesday's clash may ultimately hinge on whether Tuchel can turn the tide defensively — because on current form, the Three Lions may well need to score three again to win.