England Chase Record Ninth Straight Away Win as Croatia Lie in Wait in Rijeka

England face Croatia in Rijeka on Saturday in a Nations League Group A3 clash that could go a long way to deciding which side reaches next March's quarter-finals, with both teams sitting on three points after two matches.

Both nations beat Czechia and lost to Spain in their opening fixtures, meaning the head-to-head meetings this weekend and beyond are likely to prove pivotal.

Opta backs England, but not decisively

The Opta supercomputer is siding with England ahead of the game, albeit narrowly. Across 10,000 pre-match simulations run by the Opta model, the Three Lions triumphed in 48.6% of scenarios, with Croatia winning 27.4% and the remaining 24% of simulations finishing level.

History supports the visitors. Since Croatia's 2018 World Cup semi-final win in Moscow — when Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic cancelled out Kieran Trippier's memorable free-kick — Croatia are winless in all four meetings with England (D1 L3), including two Nations League fixtures in 2018 (0-0 at home, 1-2 away). England have won five of their last seven matches against Croatia in all competitions (D1 L1), a run stretching back to a 3-2 defeat in 2007 that cost them qualification for Euro 2008. The Three Lions have scored at least four goals in three of those wins, triumphing 4-1 in September 2008, 5-1 in September 2009 and 4-2 at the World Cup this June.

Croatia staring at an unwanted record

After nine years under Zlatko Dalic, Slaven Bilic made a winning return to the Croatia job against Czechia last weekend, with Luka Modric and Marco Pasalic scoring in a 2-1 away win. But they were then blown away by Spain in Seville on Tuesday, losing 4-1 after briefly getting back on level terms in the first half through Dion Beljo's first international goal.

Croatia could have no complaints about the margin of defeat, having attempted only five shots to Spain's 16 and registered 0.47 expected goals (xG) to their opponents' 1.81. They have produced a lower xG figure in just three previous Nations League fixtures — against France in March 2025 (0.18), Sweden in November 2020 (0.3) and England in October 2018 (0.42).

After that reality check, Croatia have now lost five of their 10 matches overall in 2026 (W5). It is only the third time they have suffered that many defeats in a single calendar year (also 2018 and 2020), and they have never previously lost six in one year.

They will hope a return to home soil at Stadion HNK provides some comfort. Croatia have won eight of their last nine competitive home matches (D1) since a 1-0 loss to Turkiye in a Euro 2024 qualifier in October 2023. However, despite losing only four of their last 41 competitive games at home, three of those defeats have come in the Nations League — against France and Portugal in 2020 and Austria in 2022.

Away-day record in sight for Tuchel's England

Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane were on target on Tuesday as England, helped by a first-half red card for Czechia midfielder Pavel Sulc, emerged as 2-0 victors in Prague.

That win was England's sixth in their last eight Nations League matches (L2) across the top two tiers, having scored 20 goals in that span — more victories and goals than they managed in their first 18 games in the competition overall (W5 D6 L7, 18 goals). It was also England's eighth straight away win in all competitions, giving them an opportunity to match an all-time team record this weekend.

Only once have England ever won nine away games in a row, doing so under World Cup-winning manager Alf Ramsey between December 1965 and October 1967.

It will be intriguing to see how Thomas Tuchel approaches his team selection for this game, after he handed Trent Alexander-Arnold his first England start since October 2024 — in a Nations League win over Finland under Lee Carsley — at right-back. Alexander-Arnold teed up Gordon's opening goal with a trademark delivery to the far post, which was also his first assist in international football since that Finland game two years ago.

Tuchel had gone with the more conservative option of Jarell Quansah on the right side of defence against Spain, but with Alexander-Arnold ranking second among England players for chances created (three, behind Gordon with four) and passes into the final third (32, behind Elliot Anderson with 40), the England boss may yet favour his creativity from deep areas.

He also has options in midfield after handing Myles Lewis-Skelly back-to-back starts in the absence of his Arsenal club-mate Declan Rice, with Alex Scott winning his first senior cap in Prague and Morgan Gibbs-White making another lively cameo appearance.

Players to watch

Croatia – Ivan Perisic: The 37-year-old, who provided a goal and an assist against England in the 2018 World Cup semi-finals, has started both of Croatia's games during this international break. He has 15 goal involvements in his last 18 starts for Croatia, netting six times and registering nine assists.

England – Harry Kane: The England captain, who smacked a penalty off the crossbar after losing his footing in the loss to Spain, has found the net in each of his last five away internationals. He could now become just the fourth player to score in six consecutive away games for the Three Lions, after James Windridge (six from March to June 1908), Tom Finney (seven from September 1946 to May 1948) and Stan Mortensen (six from May 1947 to October 1948).