Bayern slight favourites to beat Arsenal without suspended Olise, Opta model says

Opta favours hosts despite Olise ban

Bayern Munich host Arsenal in the Allianz Arena on Wednesday for Matchday 3 of the Champions League league phase with Michael Olise suspended after his red card against Viking last week. The German giants still head into the blockbuster as slight favourites in the Opta predictive model.

Going into the fixture, Arsenal and Bayern are the Opta supercomputer’s two favourites to win this season’s Champions League. The model assigns Arsenal a 21% chance of becoming European champions for the first time, while Bayern are given a 15% probability of clinching their seventh continental crown.

Bayern have four points from two meetings with Norwegian opposition, beating Bodo/Glimt and drawing with Viking, while Arsenal are one of nine teams with a perfect record after seeing off Napoli and Lille.

What’s expected

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Bayern came out victorious in 46.4% of scenarios, with Arsenal winning 29.3% and the remaining 24.3% finishing level. The model makes Bayern slight favourites even without Olise.

In Bayern’s last 23 Champions League matches, the only team to beat them by more than one goal was Arsenal, who downed them 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium last November. Jurrien Timber, Noni Madueke and the since-departed Gabriel Martinelli were on the scoresheet for the Gunners in that game, with Lennart Karl getting Bayern’s only goal. Bayern managed just eight shots, 14 touches in the opposition box and an expected goals total of 0.65 – all three of which remain their worst figures in a Champions League match under Kompany.

Historically, Arsenal have struggled against Bayern, losing 53% of their games against them overall (8/15). Among all sides they have faced at least five times in major European competitions, they only have a higher loss percentage against Barcelona (67% – 6/9). On home soil specifically, Bayern have only lost one of their seven Champions League meetings with Arsenal (W5 D1), winning the last three in a row, two of which were by a 5-1 scoreline, in November 2015 and February 2017.

Kane’s role heightened with Olise out

Olise’s red card against Viking last week cost Bayern in the short term. Bayern led 3-2 when Olise received his second yellow card in the 73rd minute, but Viking threw men forward and equalised via substitute Herman Haugen. The France superstar will now serve a one-match ban against Arsenal.

Since the start of last season, Olise has created more chances than any other player in the Champions League (44), also making the joint most defensive line-breaking passes (43), and only Lamine Yamal (55) has completed more dribbles than his 54. Either Arsenal academy graduate Serge Gnabry or promising youngster Karl will likely come in on the right flank.

This will be Harry Kane’s penultimate game before he discovers whether he has become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001, with the winner being announced next week. Kane, who marked his 100th Bundesliga appearance with his 102nd goal in the competition on Saturday, has an excellent record against Arsenal. The former Tottenham hero has scored 15 goals in 22 career appearances against the Gunners, only netting more against Leicester City (20) and Everton (16). Fourteen of his goals against Arsenal came with Spurs, making him the highest-scoring player in the history of the North London derby.

Will Arsenal adopt a front-foot approach?

Arsenal left it late to defeat Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Sunday, with Madueke’s deflected strike proving decisive 10 minutes from time. They held on for their 32nd 1-0 win in the Premier League under Mikel Arteta – the joint-most of any team since he took charge in December 2019.

Arsenal attracted criticism for their approach to last season’s final versus Paris Saint-Germain, having recorded the lowest possession share by any team in a Champions League showpiece (24.7%). However, 73% of Arsenal’s high-intensity pressures in the Champions League this season have been in the opposition half (373/508), the highest percentage by any team through the first two matchdays. The Gunners also led all teams for high turnovers (25) and shot-ending high turnovers (nine) in the opening two rounds.

Arsenal have won each of their last 14 league-stage matches in UEFA’s top-tier competition, and only PSG and Real Madrid (28 each) have won more games overall in the competition than the Gunners since their 2023 return (27, level with Bayern).

Players to watch

Bayern Munich – Joshua Kimmich
Through the opening two matchdays in the Champions League this season, the two players to play the most line-breaking passes in the final third were Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard (39) and Bayern’s Kimmich (33). Kimmich also leads all players in the Bundesliga for successful passes into the final third (192) and through-balls (12) this term, while ranking fourth for expected assists (2.68 xA).

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka played a starring role in Arsenal’s 3-0 victory over Lille on matchday two, coming off the bench to provide a goal and assist. Just four of Saka’s 14 Champions League goals have come away from home, though two of those were against Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain. Only two players have ever scored away against all three of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and PSG in the competition – Didier Drogba and Erling Haaland.