Arsenal emerge as Opta’s title favourites

Arsenal have been backed to retain the Premier League title in 2026-27, with the Opta supercomputer making them champions in 37.9% of 10,000 simulations. The forecast gives Mikel Arteta’s side a significant advantage as they attempt to become only the fourth club in Premier League history to defend the title.

Arsenal’s defensive numbers are central to the prediction. They conceded 27 goals last season and recorded an average of 0.74 expected goals against per game, the fourth-lowest figure recorded in the available Premier League data since 2012-13. Their title prospects could nevertheless depend heavily on the fitness of William Saliba: Arsenal’s win rate has fallen from 68.7% to 47.6% when the French defender has been absent since his debut in 2022.

The model also sees Bruno Guimaraes as an important addition alongside Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi. Guimaraes led all Premier League players for duels won and tackles won per 90 minutes last season, according to the report.

Manchester City remain Arsenal’s closest challengers

Manchester City are given a 20.5% chance of winning the title despite Pep Guardiola’s departure. Erling Haaland remains the focal point of a squad equipped for a possession-based approach, while the club’s £116 million move for Elliot Anderson is expected to strengthen the midfield for the long term.

City’s outlook is tempered by uncertainty over Rodri’s future and Bernardo Silva’s move to Real Madrid. Haaland, meanwhile, could challenge for a fourth Premier League Golden Boot, which would match the joint record held by Thierry Henry and Mohamed Salah.

Liverpool are third favourites at 9.2%, followed by Manchester United at 6.2%. Liverpool will need Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz to make major improvements after restricted first seasons, while the club has yet to replace Salah, its record Premier League scorer and assister.

United’s prospects have improved sharply after a strong second half of last season. Following Michael Carrick’s return to the dugout on January 12, the club collected 39 points from its final 17 league matches—more than any other team during that period.

Chelsea and Tottenham positioned as European outsiders

Arsenal have an 83% chance of finishing in the top five, according to the simulations, with City next on 69.4%. Liverpool, Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton are the other clubs given at least a 20% chance of Champions League qualification.

Chelsea have a 30.3% top-five probability and Tottenham 24.1%. Both clubs will benefit from having no European football, while their new coaches inherit teams that have been heavily strengthened. Xabi Alonso has averaged 2.2 points per game in recent Bundesliga and LaLiga work, and Chelsea have already spent almost £350 million this summer.

Tottenham have spent £185 million on a new midfield pairing of Sandro Tonali and Mateus Fernandes. Newcastle, meanwhile, face a major transition after losing their head coach and key players including Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes, although Matthias Jaissle’s record and reputation offer grounds for optimism.

Promoted clubs forecast to struggle

The supercomputer predicts that all three promoted teams could be relegated immediately. Hull City are the likeliest to go down, with a 38.7% relegation probability, ahead of Ipswich Town at 31.2% and Coventry City at 27.9%.

Hull’s underlying numbers are a major concern: their 1.7 expected goals against per match in the Championship was the second-worst figure in the division. Coventry also face the second-toughest opening five-match schedule, while Hull have the sixth-toughest. Ipswich’s opening fixture against Sunderland will provide an early test.

Sunderland, who finished seventh last season, have a 25.9% relegation probability and are considered vulnerable to second-season regression. Their 34.95 open-play expected goals ranked among the Premier League’s lowest last term. Fulham and Leeds United are each given a 23.4% chance of relegation, while Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Everton and Bournemouth also feature among the clubs at risk.

With nine Premier League clubs entering the season under new head coaches and nine teams competing in Europe, the simulations point to an unusually difficult campaign to forecast. For now, however, Arsenal’s defensive stability makes them the clear model pick to remain on top.