Kompany's Bayern tipped to cruise to historic third straight crown

Vincent Kompany has led Bayern Munich to the Bundesliga title in each of his first two seasons in charge, and the Opta supercomputer expects that dominance to continue into 2026-27, handing the Bavarians a commanding 76.5% chance of completing a three-peat and claiming a record-extending 36th crown.

Bayern were untouchable last term, cruising to the 2025-26 title back on April 19 with four games to spare — the fifth-quickest Bundesliga win in history — and finishing a remarkable 16 points clear of second-placed Borussia Dortmund. They lost just once in the league, a shock 2-1 defeat to Augsburg in January, and set the record for the most goals scored in a single Bundesliga campaign with 122, with no other club in Europe even reaching the 100-goal mark (Barcelona were closest on 95).

Their dominance also extended to the sideshow: they wrapped up a domestic double after beating Stuttgart in the DFB-Pokal final, ending a six-year wait for that trophy. Bayern have now topped the charts in 13 of the last 14 seasons, with only the great Xabi Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen side managing to disrupt the trend by winning in 2023-24.

The champions have already made a winning start to the new term, defeating Dortmund 2-1 to lift the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup — a result they will hope serves as a good omen. They topped the tables for expected goals (100.9 xG) last season as well, while only Dortmund (34) conceded fewer goals than their 36.

Kompany's formidable forward line includes Harry Kane — who plundered 61 goals in all competitions in 2025-26 — along with Luis Diaz and Michael Olise. The club has also added Ismail Saibari and Nathaniel Brown, the latter impressing in pre-season and scoring in the Supercup win.

The supercomputer gives Bayern a 98% chance of qualifying for the Champions League — a trophy the Belgian boss is desperate to add to his collection — and a flat 0% chance of being dragged into the relegation picture. It looks like the title is Bayern's to lose, but the question remains: can anyone throw a spanner in the works?

Dortmund and Leverkusen lead the chasing pack

Borussia Dortmund are once again tipped to be Bayern's closest challengers. Heading into their second full season under Niko Kovac, BVB are given just an 8.3% chance of pipping their bitter rivals to top spot, although their most likely finishing position is second (23.4%).

A disappointing opening half in the Supercup handed them a mountain to climb, but Dortmund have shown a willingness to take the fight to Bayern. Kovac will want to preserve their status as the division's tightest defence — they conceded the fewest goals in the Bundesliga last term — but their bigger headache could be discovering where the goals will come from. Their transfer business has not been particularly flashy this window, even after the loss of Karim Adeyemi.

The next closest is Bayer Leverkusen, now under management Carles Martinez after a turbulent 2025-26 saw them go through two bosses. They carry a 5.3% chance of claiming a second title in four years. Only four other teams hold a higher-than-1% probability of lifting the trophy — Stuttgart (2.9%), RB Leipzig (2.7%), Freiburg (1.23%) and Hoffenheim (1.15%).

Champions League race set to be a tight tussle

At 62.6%, Dortmund are strong candidates to join Bayern in the Champions League places, with the Klassiker rivals given an almost perfect chance. BVB have qualified for UEFA's premier competition in each of the last 14 seasons.

Leverkusen will ply their trade in the Europa League this term after major struggles in 2025-26, but are tipped (52.9%) to bounce straight back into the top four. They have already received a lift, winning their opening match under Martinez in the DFB-Pokal 4-0 against third-tier Wehen Wiesbaden.

However, the race for the final Champions League spot promises to be tight, with the supercomputer separating Stuttgart and Leipzig by a razor-thin margin. Stuttgart secure a top-four place in 39.9% of simulations, while Martin Demichelis' Leipzig — without Yan Diomande after his big-money move to Real Madrid — do so in 37.9%.

There are plenty of outside contenders to shake up the expected balance. Hoffenheim came within a point of the top four last season, and their chances of improving that finish sit at 23.1%, just ahead of Freiburg (21.7%) and Mainz (15.7%). In the second-tier race, Leipzig have the highest probability of dropping to the Europa League at 10.79%, marginally above Leverkusen's 10.77%.

Can the newcomers survive the relegation scrap?

Schalke return to the Bundesliga for the first time since 202 , while Elversberg play in the top tier for the first time in their history after finishing second in the second tier. Paderborn completed the incoming trio by ending Wolfsburg's 29-year stay in the top flight, courtesy of Laurin Curda's strike in the 10th minute of extra time in the second leg of the relegation play-off.

All are expected to be in the relegation mire, but while Schalke are the favourites to go down at 24.2%, they are expected to join Cologne (23.6%) rather than any of their fellow newcomers. Schalke will pin hopes on the experience and goals of reunited striker Edin Dzeko. Cologne finished 14th last season but conceded 63 goals — the fourth-highest total in the division, with two of the teams above them on that list going down — so tightening up at the back is a priority. Elversberg's chances of returning to the second tier initially are only slightly lower at 22.9%, while Paderborn have the best survival odds of the promoted trio, though their relegation probability still sits at 23.88%.

Werder Bremen, who finished 15th in 2025-26 just a few points above the drop, are expected to be in the fight again with a 19.9% probability of automatic relegation, with Hamburg just ahead. Union Berlin are an outside bet at 14.2% — new coach Mauro Loudest to avoid a repeat of the late-season slide that nearly dragged them down.