Man City tipped to keep perfect WSL start as Chelsea and Arsenal collide at Stamford Bridge

Three rounds into the Women's Super League season, defending champions Manchester City remain the only team with a 100% record — and the Opta supercomputer expects them to extend it on Saturday. Fresh from a frantic 4-2 victory over Liverpool and a 2-2 Champions League draw with Bayern Munich in midweek, Andree Jeglertz's side head to The Valley to face Charlton Athletic, the only club yet to pick up a single point this term.

Unsurprisingly, the predictive model makes City the clearest favourites of matchday four, assigning them a 75.6% win probability against Charlton's 10.6%. Only once in the last eight campaigns have City enjoyed a longer winning start than this one, when they won each of their first four matches in 2019-20 — and they will be supremely confident of matching that feat in what will be their first competitive WSL meeting with the promoted Addicks. History is on their side: promoted sides have won just one of their last 28 meetings with the reigning champions in the competition (D3 L24).

Last time out, Khadija Shaw became the first player to score in each of City's first three games of a WSL campaign, and she could become the fifth player to do so in the first four matches of a season for any club. She would join Kim Little (four for Arsenal in 2018-19), Vivianne Miedema (five for Arsenal in 2020-21), Martha Thomas (four for Tottenham in 2023-24) and Aggie Beever-Jones (four for Chelsea in 2025-26) in that exclusive club.

Chelsea vs Arsenal: the Stamford Bridge blockbuster

While City chase a fourth straight win, the weekend's real blockbuster pits their two likeliest title rivals against each other. Neither Chelsea nor Arsenal have suffered a defeat yet this term, but with both sides already off City's pace, Sunday's head-to-head at Stamford Bridge looks vital. Arsenal (20) and Chelsea (11) currently sit on the two longest unbeaten runs in the WSL, and Chelsea are looking to go unbeaten in their opening four games for the fourth successive WSL season.

Chelsea are the favourites to triumph, winning 51.9% of the supercomputer's simulations compared to Arsenal's 23.6%. This will be the 10th meeting between the sides in all competitions since the 2023-24 season, with both teams picking up four wins apiece in that time (D1), though the Gunners won the most recent league meeting at Stamford Bridge 2-0 back in January. Renee Slegers will be determined to have her say, having already beaten Sonia Bompastor twice in all competitions this calendar year — no manager has ever won three in a row against her. Arsenal could also win as few as five points from their first four matches for the second time in the last three seasons (after 2024-25).

Merseyside derby headlines Sunday's supporting cast

Sunday also brings a Merseyside derby between Liverpool and Everton at Anfield. Liverpool were 3-2 winners against Everton back in March and could win consecutive WSL games against the Toffees for the first time since 2013 and 2014 (three straight). The Reds are marginal favourites to prevail, given a 44% chance of victory despite losing eight of their nine previous league games played at Anfield, including five against Everton. Only Man City (11), Chelsea and Arsenal (both 10) have won more WSL games in 2026 than Everton (seven), who could win three league matches in a row for the second time this calendar year. Everton's chances of winning away to their Merseyside rivals sit at 29.1%, but this is one of the two most likely draws of the weekend, with 26.9% of simulations finishing level.

Elsewhere, Tottenham are very much in the mix at the top, sitting second and just two points behind Man City after an unbeaten start (W2 D1). Unbeaten in their last six league games, they could go seven straight without defeat for the first time in the league's history, and they have a 57.7% chance of extending that run against Aston Villa. The Villans have won three of their last five WSL away games against Spurs but come into this match having drawn their last two league games on the road, with a 22% chance of adding a third. Aston Villa have not yet gone ahead in any of their three league games — something they must do to turn their 20.3% win probability into a first victory of the season.

United, Lionesses and Palace feature in Saturday's slate

Eva Olid got her first win in charge of Manchester United in the Women's League Cup on Wednesday, a 10-1 thrashing of Sheffield United, and her side will now look to translate that into a WSL victory. United are given a 68% chance of beating West Ham (14.3%), having gone unbeaten in their last 12 league games against the Hammers (W8 D4). The Red Devils are winless in their first three WSL matches (D1 L2) for the first time, but West Ham struggle on their travels against them — losing each of their six WSL visits by an aggregate score of 1-19.

London City Lionesses, who have six points on the board after three games and sit fourth, host winless Brighton on Saturday. Alexia Putellas and company are assigned a 52.9% win probability, with Brighton winning just 23% of pre-match simulations. London City's three wins in their last four WSL matches are more than they managed across their previous 12, and their nine 'big' chances against Charlton last week were the most by any team in a WSL game since October 2020. Brighton could fail to win their opening four matches of a WSL campaign for the third time after 2018-19 and 2019-20.

Two of the new teams at this level face off as Birmingham City seek their first victory since promotion while Crystal Palace try to get back to winning ways. Palace were the only team to do the league double over WSL2 champions Birmingham last season, but it is Birmingham who are backed to come out on top on Sunday with a 44.7% win probability to Palace's 28.4%. At 26.9%, this is the other most likely draw of the weekend. Amy Merricks will be determined to halt her nine-match winless streak as a manager in the top flight (D3 L6), with Birmingham attempting to avoid starting a WSL campaign without a win in four games for the third time.

Opta supercomputer's matchday four predictions

Who will come out on top in the WSL this weekend? If the numbers are anything to go by, City will make it four from four — and Sunday's Stamford Bridge showdown could go a long way to deciding who is best placed to chase them down.