Harry Kane has emerged as the leading candidate for the 2026 men’s Ballon d’Or after a season in which the Bayern Munich striker scored 73 goals in 65 appearances for club and country.

Kane’s numbers put him in front

Kane’s campaign included 56 goals and eight assists across the Bundesliga, Champions League and World Cup, plus further goals for Bayern Munich and England in other competitions, qualifiers and friendlies. He also delivered in decisive matches, scoring six times in five Champions League knockout games and netting a hat-trick in the DFB-Pokal final.

At the World Cup, Kane scored twice against DR Congo and then scored and assisted against Mexico. His quiet semi-final against Argentina, combined with Bayern’s Champions League exit against Paris Saint-Germain, could count against him. Even so, the scale and consistency of his season make the question unavoidable: “If not now, for Kane, when?”

Olise and Rodri provide the strongest challenge

Michael Olise is ranked second after producing 20 goals and 32 assists across league, Champions League and World Cup matches, excluding penalties. His seven World Cup assists were a record for a single edition of the tournament, while he also scored a hat-trick for France against Northern Ireland.

Rodri occupies third place following a season split between a difficult return from an ACL injury and a dominant World Cup. After recovering his rhythm with Manchester City, Rodri controlled Spain’s run to the title and won the tournament’s Golden Ball. His limited minutes at club level remain the main argument against him, but his influence in the World Cup could prove decisive.

Mbappe, Haaland and the rest of the top 10

Kylian Mbappe scored 40 goals in 42 appearances for Real Madrid and added 10 World Cup goals, winning a second successive Golden Boot and becoming the tournament’s all-time leading scorer with 22 goals. Real Madrid’s lack of major trophies and France’s fourth-place finish, however, weaken his case.

Erling Haaland scored 27 Premier League goals, added eight in the Champions League and helped Norway reach the World Cup quarter-finals with seven goals in five matches. His 69 goal contributions for club and country place him fifth.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is sixth after starring for Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, while Lamine Yamal ranks seventh despite injuries limiting his season and his impact at the World Cup. Luis Diaz, whose work helped unlock Bayern’s attack, is eighth after recording 22 goals and 17 assists. Jude Bellingham’s outstanding World Cup knockout performances lift him to ninth despite an inconsistent club season.

Lionel Messi completes the top 10. In what was described as his international swansong, Messi scored eight World Cup goals and supplied four assists for Argentina. He also finished the qualifying period with 44 goals and 34 assists in 46 matches for club and country, including a spectacular late-season run with Inter Miami.

How the winner will be decided

The 30-player men’s shortlist was selected by France Football and L’Equipe, alongside former players and managers chosen by UEFA. It covers performances from August 3 to July 19, including the World Cup and other international tournaments.

The winner will be chosen by one journalist from each of FIFA’s 100 highest-ranked member nations. Each voter selects 10 players, awarding 15 points for first place, 12 for second, 10 for third and progressively fewer points down to one for 10th. A tie would be settled by the number of first-place votes.

Voters are asked to consider individual and decisive performances, collective achievements and trophies, and class and fair play on and off the pitch. The ceremony will take place in London on October 26, with the award honouring Stanley Matthews, the inaugural winner 70 years ago.

The women’s award will also have a new winner: three-time holder Aitana Bonmati is absent from the shortlist after suffering a broken leg while with Spain.

Why the World Cup matters

The tournament’s influence may again shape the final standings. Rodri’s Golden Ball, Mbappe’s scoring record and Messi’s final World Cup campaign give them powerful narratives, while Kane’s individual output and Haaland’s role in Norway’s run offer competing cases. The final decision will ultimately reflect both the numbers and the priorities of 100 individual voters.