Arsenal's goal drought exposes deeper flaws as Brighton and promoted Palace and Birmingham upend WSL data

Arsenal have two major flaws

Opta made Arsenal third favourites to win the WSL before a ball was kicked. Their win at Brighton, combined with Chelsea's draw against Aston Villa in week one, meant Renée Slegers' side rose to narrow favourites. The four games since, from which Arsenal took two points, have torpedoed their title chances.

One reason for their slump is a continuation of a problem from last season. The stats section of the Guardian's Arsenal pre-season preview highlighted draws in 2025-26 that they deserved to win based on expected goals. That trend has continued this season, with positive xG margins of 2.2 and 1.2 in their home games against Crystal Palace (0-0) and Manchester United (1-1) respectively. Had Smilla Holmberg not scored with her only shot of the campaign in the 95th minute against United, the situation would be even worse.

While players inevitably have a small sample of shots at this point, Arsenal's finishing woes are a collective problem. Only Lisa Baum and Alessia Russo have also scored, with the latter 1.28 goals below her expected goal tally. Scoring three goals in the international break may help Russo's confidence.

A physical deficiency may also be contributing to Arsenal's struggles. Gradient Sports award players an athleticism score, a single metric which incorporates stamina, explosiveness and game context. Of 125 WSL players with a score who have played at least 270 minutes this season, Steph Catley is Arsenal's highest-ranked, at 31st, and their only representative above 59th. Every other club has at least two players in the top 50, with Chelsea having five. West Ham possessing seven shows this is not a decisive factor in success, but Arsenal fans may wonder whether their side need to increase their physical intensity.

Brighton are ones to watch

Brighton were predicted by Opta to finish seventh. As they are ninth, that forecast looks reasonable enough. Yet the underlying data suggests they deserve to be third, 0.1 expected points behind City.

The Seagulls endured a case of wastefulness more extreme than anything Arsenal have offered up when they drew 1-1 with Villa. Despite an expected goal count of 3.17 to 0.03 in Brighton's favour, Lynn Wilms's 89th-minute goal robbed them of a victory. Brighton also drew at Birmingham when leading the expected goals by 1.5, and missed four Opta-defined big chances in their 2-0 defeat at London City Lionesses.

If they can make their dominance count, Brighton look capable of at least matching the fifth-place finish they secured in 2024-25.

Two promoted teams have an unexpected weapon

Productive pressing tends to belong to better teams. Opta's high turnover metric records when a team wins the ball to begin a new sequence of open-play possession within 40m of the opposition goal. In the 2025-26 WSL, the five clubs with the fewest high turnovers that led to shots were those that finished in the bottom five. Promoted London City had the fourth-least productive press by this measure.

Two of their successors are upending these correlations. Crystal Palace are third for shot-ending high turnovers, with 12, behind Chelsea (17) and Tottenham (15). The percentage of their possession regains in the final 40m that led to shots is the highest in the division (33.3%), with fellow promoted side Birmingham (28.6%) next in line. Birmingham are tied with Tottenham for most goals from high turnovers, on three, while Palace have two.

Birmingham's goals were all scored by Océane Hurtré, helping propel her to joint-first in the golden boot race with five goals. The 22-year-old French attacker won the ball for two of the three high-turnover goals, including one at Manchester City. Her others came in the first and eighth minutes of matches against Palace and Brighton respectively, illustrating the benefit that pressing opponents early can bring.