Three-week international break puts Carrick and Arbeloa on red alert as Premier League pressure builds
Three weeks is a long time in football — especially if you are a manager struggling for results
An extended international break is upon us, and for a clutch of Premier League and EFL bosses the pause in play could prove decisive. Three EFL coaches have already lost their jobs this season — Paul Heckingbottom at Preston North End, Michael Duff at Wycombe Wanderers and Peterborough's Luke Williams — but plenty of others will be looking over their shoulders heading into the new, extended three-week interlude.
That group prominently includes the managers of Fulham and Manchester United, who meet at Craven Cottage on Sunday in the final fixture before players jet off around the world with their countries.
Carrick counts the cost of a historic collapse
Michael Carrick arrived at Old Trafford last season with credit in the bank after steering United into the Champions League, but a difficult start to the campaign has reignited the debate around his future. The 3-2 EFL Cup exit to Brighton on Wednesday was a particularly painful blow — it was the first time United had led at home by two goals and lost since they were beaten 3-2 by Tottenham in 1976, half a century ago. It came on the back of a 1-0 loss to 10-man Manchester City, with United's only victories this season coming against Ipswich Town and Sabah.
Yet BBC Sport's Simon Stone believes the Fulham trip is not a tipping point for Carrick's employment. "There are ways of losing games of course, but I don't see the trip to Fulham as being 'make or break' for Carrick in the sense of his job," Stone said. "Carrick says it would be 'ridiculous' to think that way — and I agree. He got enough credit in the bank last season by steering United into the Champions League to ride out a poor start to the season."
The concern, Stone adds, is reputational: "I think the issue is United generate so much debate that a loss at Craven Cottage, which would be United's first since 2009, against a team that has only one point and is bottom of the table, would lead to numerous external inquests — which in turn puts a laser focus on the club when they resume their campaign against Tottenham on 10 October."
Arbeloa already feeling the heat at Fulham
Alvaro Arbeloa's first months in English football have been bruising. Appointed in the summer after just 28 games as Real Madrid boss in the second half of last season, the former defender has no wins and three defeats in his first four Premier League matches. Speculation of unrest among the squad, fuelled by players' social media activity, has added to the sense of crisis.
BBC Sport's Nizaar Kinsella reports that "there appears to be some substance to reports of disgruntlement among elements of Fulham's squad early in the campaign. His significant tactical changes since replacing Marco Silva have left the Cottagers vulnerable at the back, although they produced a more solid display in a goalless draw away to Liverpool last weekend."
Silva spent five years at Craven Cottage, but owner Shahid Khan has shown a ruthless streak in the past: Claudio Ranieri lasted just 106 days in charge, while Felix Magath was sacked in September 2014.
The stats: do clubs change managers in the international break?
History suggests a September change is unlikely. Over the past 10 years, only two managers — Watford's Javi Gracia in 2019 and Nottingham Forest's Nuno Espirito Santo last year — have been moved on during this early break. The October stoppage has been similarly quiet, with only Francesco Guidolin at Swansea in 2016 and Xisco Munoz at Watford in 2021 losing their jobs during that window. November, by contrast, has seen six bosses replaced in the past decade.
That does not mean managers are safe. In the past 10 campaigns, nine coaches had left their jobs by the time the second international break came around — the same point in the season we have now reached. With no Premier League manager having moved on yet, the question is whether the next three weeks could change that.
'This early break doesn't help any managers' — Pulis
Former Stoke, West Brom and Middlesbrough boss Tony Pulis knows the rhythms of the managerial sack race intimately. "With the first international break upon us, rumblings around certain clubs that have started the season poorly have surfaced," he said. "In my time, the October/November international breaks, the pause just after the Christmas period, and then early March would be the three sticking points for any manager who was struggling with results."
Pulis explained why these windows are so dangerous: "The pause in the season gives football clubs the chance to appoint a new manager with time for them to settle into their new role, to take stock of the surroundings, staff and time to prepare for their first game in charge." However, he does not see this September pause as the critical juncture: "I don't see this September break as a flashing light, it is too early in the season, but from then on in, the dates I have mentioned really do come into play."
His verdict on the calendar is blunt: "This early international break doesn't help any managers. Whether your team is winning or losing, on both accounts, it's a nightmare. If you're winning you want to keep playing, and yet if you've started badly as a manager you want more time to put it right. Players travelling and the chance of injuries at such an early stage of the season is completely bonkers in my opinion."
Other bosses feeling the heat
Tottenham — Roberto de Zerbi: Results go "from bad to worse" for Spurs, who are yet to win a Premier League game this season despite spending around £300m on new talent over the summer. BBC Sport's Sami Mokbel reports there is "no sense whatsoever that Roberto de Zerbi is under pressure despite the club's difficult start — no wins from five games. The vibes with regards to how the team is starting to play are positive amid a sense that it is only a matter of time before they click." The caveat: "It needs to click sooner rather than later."
Crystal Palace — Pierre Sage: The Frenchman has endured an indifferent start after arriving from Lens, with just one league win and a leaky defence. "Allowances will be made for the unavailability — for a manner of reasons — of key attacking duo Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta." Thursday's 4-0 Europa League win over Lech Poznan eased some pressure, but a defeat away to Leeds would come at the worst possible time for Sage.
Burnley — Nicky Hayen: The Belgian quit Genk to spearhead Burnley's bid for an immediate Premier League return, and the Clarets started the season as third favourites for promotion behind West Ham and Wolves. Yet they are winless in their first eight matches, and Hayen faced questions about his future in his pre-match news conference on Friday — admitting that he had been affected by the scrutiny.