Barcelona begin the 2026-27 season as strong favourites to defend their La Liga crown and achieve their first domestic three-peat since 2011 under Pep Guardiola, but the bookmakers see a significantly tougher road ahead in Europe's premier competition.

The Catalans open their league campaign on Sunday with a trip to Elche, and early betting markets have installed Hansi Flick's side as the clear frontrunners in Spain. Barcelona are listed at -170 to win a third straight La Liga title, well ahead of Real Madrid at +140, with Atlético Madrid a distant third at +1800.

Real Madrid's reignited rivalry

As always, Barcelona's principal challengers for domestic supremacy will be Real Madrid, who have been transformative in the market this summer. Los Blancos have brought back José Mourinho and completed several high-profile transfers that make them a genuinely intriguing proposition for the new campaign.

"Mourinho — who has had more misses than hits in his recent stops around Europe — is under huge pressure after two trophyless seasons for Madrid," the market analysis notes.

A stacked Madrid squad underachieved in a major way last term and generated headlines for their off-field troubles more than anything else. Atlético Madrid, third in the betting, continue to make eye-catching signings that suggest genuine contention, but Diego Simeone's side has repeatedly fallen short since winning the title in 2020-21 and remain entangled in a significant transfer saga involving star forward Julián Álvarez, who hopes to join Barcelona but is likely to stay despite his wishes.

The early forecast is that Barcelona will secure the three-peat, though Madrid are expected to make it a close-run thing — with the second league Clásico on May 9, 2027 at the Bernabéu already being tipped as the potential title decider.

The Champions League mountain

While Barcelona are favoured domestically, the European picture tells a different story. The Blaugrana are tied for fourth spot in the Champions League betting at +750 alongside Real Madrid and Manchester City, behind two-time reigning champions PSG, Arsenal and Bayern Munich.

Paris Saint-Germain lead the market at +500 and, per the analysis, "once again have a stacked squad" with the luxury of resting their biggest stars for marquee European dates. Arsenal (+650) are out to avenge last season's Final defeat to the French champions, while Bayern Munich (+650) return Vincent Kompany with scope to focus squarely on Europe given the likely comfort of their domestic campaign.

The addition of Rodri has given Barcelona genuine belief in their push for a first European Cup in over a decade. Rodri brings "a proven veteran superstar with a massive track record of trophies, including the World Cup this summer and the 2023 Champions League in which he scored the winning goal in the Final."

A squad still one or two pieces short

Winning the Champions League remains the dream, but it is also a gigantic challenge for Barcelona, who are still searching for a world-class striker and a quality centre-back to build a squad truly capable of contending for the trophy. The transfer window remains open, with the Blaugrana "actively looking for a new number nine while also trying to find a market opportunity to strengthen the defence."

Even so, an encouraging verdict emerges from the odds: the current squad, particularly with Rodri's arrival, is "already good enough to make at least the semis" in what promises to be a defining chapter for Barcelona's rebirth under Flick.