Premier League's Finishing Crisis: Record Draws as 14 Clubs Underperform Their xG
Goals are on the up in the Premier League — just not as quickly as the underlying numbers demand. The average of 2.70 non-penalty goals per game in 2026-27 is higher than last season and two of the previous four campaigns, yet matches have averaged 2.88 non-penalty expected goals, the second most in the past six seasons.
The gap tells its own story: chances are being squandered. If the 20 teams converted at the par rate, there would be almost two extra goals per week. As small as that sounds, the proportion of games drawn is higher than in any past Premier League season — and some of those tied matches might well have been settled had the finishing been up to scratch.
A division-wide shortfall
This is not an isolated problem at a handful of clubs. Fourteen teams have scored fewer goals than expected — whether penalties are included or not — up from 10 last season. While eight clubs sit within a goal of their underlying numbers and may see an immediate change of fortunes this weekend, the remaining 12 are split 8-4 towards the underachievers.
It is not just season-wide averages that are crumbling. Week-by-week performances are similarly off: across the first five match weeks there were 24 instances of a team scoring at least one goal fewer than their xG implied they should have — twice as many as occurred in the opening 50 games last season.
Chance quality offers few answers
Numerous explanations are possible, but chance quality does not appear to be one of them. The expected goals per non-penalty shot average only drops once more decimal places are applied than feels healthy. At first glance, volume of touches in the penalty area has barely shifted either, with a Premier League team averaging 24.8 touches in the opposition box per game — down just 0.6 on last season.
The breakdown by team is more revealing. Four of last season's top five are having fewer box touches per match, with Aston Villa and Liverpool having seen around a third disappear from their averages. The one team from that quintet to increase is Manchester United — but they have only played one club that finished in the top 10 last season, and five of their eight goals came against Championship runners-up Ipswich. A finely tuned attacking machine they are not.
United top the Premier League for non-penalty shots but are joint-second bottom for average expected goal value. They have not been helped by the form of their top player for non-penalty xG: Bryan Mbeumo is one of 10 players who have scored at least one goal fewer than their underlying numbers imply they should have. As he underachieved by 1.19 last season, this is not especially odd.
Star men carrying too heavy a load
The issue is how reliant United are on the 27-year-old — and they are far from alone. The top player for expected goals at almost every Premier League club is taking a bigger share of the xG pie than they enjoyed last season, though that need not necessarily be a long-term concern, since the figures will drop once playing time and chances are shared more equally within squads.
The most involved players themselves may help explain why goals are down. The leading xG players from each club have collectively scored 6.8 non-penalty goals fewer than expected — almost 40% of the shortfall across the division from just 20 players.
Thierno Barry has been the player taking the chance for 49.4% of Everton's non-penalty expected goals this season, up from 17.7% last term — a massive increase in responsibility for a relatively young player, and he has scored twice from chances valued at 3.5 xG. Alexander Isak has seen a greater leap in share of team expected goals, though injuries meant he did not feature that often last season. There are seeds of growth for him at Liverpool, but he remains relatively new in terms of minutes played for the club, and as with more than half of Premier League clubs he is playing under a new man in the dugout.
Isak's replacement at Newcastle, Yoanne Wissa, underperformed against xG by more than two goals last season, as did Marcus Tavernier at Bournemouth. They may not be the best players for their clubs to funnel chances through. At least they are preferable to the situation at Tottenham, where centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke is their leading player for non-penalty expected goals.
Elsewhere, the players with the most xG for Fulham (Gonzalo García) and Ipswich (Emersonn) are 22 years old and new to English football. Hull's Oli McBurnie, meanwhile, has never scored more than six goals in a Premier League campaign. Erling Haaland remains a reliable presence in the xG-heavy frontman stakes, but the situation at Manchester City may affect his form.
Quirk or trend?
Excessive reliance on players who can be forgiven for underperforming could prove to be a small-sample statistical quirk that is quickly remedied. Until it is, do not bank on the goal rate reaching the expected goal level in the Premier League.