Manchester City’s perfect start offers no guarantee of Premier League glory
Five wins, but no title certainty
Manchester City are the only team to have won all five of their Premier League matches this season, opening a three-point gap over reigning champions Arsenal. Their start has been especially notable as the club begins life after Pep Guardiola, but historical evidence suggests that a perfect opening is only an advantage—not a guarantee of success.
City have become the 15th different team to win their first five games of a Premier League season and have now done so four times. Yet they converted only one of their three previous five-game winning starts into a title: the 2023-24 campaign. They failed to build on similar openings in 2015-16 and 2016-17.
Only four of 14 teams finished as champions
Across Premier League history, only four of the 14 teams that won their first five matches also went on to lift the trophy—a success rate of 29%. Chelsea achieved the feat in 2005-06 and 2009-10, Liverpool did so in 2019-20, and City completed it in 2023-24.
Each of those champions extended their winning run beyond five games. Chelsea won nine in a row at the start of 2005-06, Liverpool opened 2019-20 with eight victories, while Chelsea in 2009-10 and City in 2023-24 added a sixth win.
The broader English top-flight record is only slightly more encouraging: 14 of the previous 39 teams to win their first five matches went on to win the league, or 36%. Tottenham’s 11-game winning start in 1960-61 remains the top-flight record, and they duly won the title.
Fixture difficulty raises questions
City’s opening schedule has also been relatively kind. Opta’s Power Rankings rated their start as the second easiest in the division, with their opponents averaging 91.2. Only Liverpool, whose opponents averaged 91.1, had a simpler opening sequence.
City’s next major examination will come at Anfield against Liverpool, who remain unbeaten under new manager Andoni Iraola. Concerns about City’s defensive performances could make that fixture an early measure of whether their winning run is sustainable.
Arsenal have made a stronger start than last season
Arsenal have taken 12 points from their opening five matches this season, with their only setback a 3-0 defeat at Brighton. That is already better than their 10-point start last season, when they lost at Liverpool and drew at home against Manchester City.
The average champion across the previous 34 Premier League campaigns had collected 11.3 points after five matches. However, the record also shows that title winners can recover from modest beginnings. Manchester United won the inaugural Premier League title in 1992-93 after taking only seven points from their first five games, while United have won four titles after collecting exactly eight points at that stage. City matched that mark in 2020-21.
No champion in a 38-game Premier League season has started with fewer than eight points, but Sunderland’s 1912-13 First Division triumph remains an even greater example of recovery: they failed to win any of their first seven matches before going on to claim the title.
For City, the message is clear. Five wins have put them in an excellent position, but history, fixture strength and the approaching test at Liverpool all suggest the title race is only beginning.