Five games in, the Premier League table is already taking shape — and history is ominous for bottom side Tottenham

It is only matchweek five and the season has barely begun — yet the Premier League table is already more settled than most supporters would care to admit. Recent history suggests that where a side sits now is, more often than not, roughly where it will still be sitting in May.

Manchester City top the standings with a perfect record: 15 points from five wins, 13 goals scored and only five conceded, their form reading W-W-W-W-W. Arsenal — chasing back-to-back titles — are second on 12 points after four wins and a single defeat, while a high-scoring third side on 10 points, with 16 goals for and just five against, completes the early top three. Four teams are stacked on nine points just behind, with eighth-placed Hull on eight points and Ipswich, in 11th, on six.

The big questions at this stage: will Brentford really qualify for Europe? Will Hull stay up? And will Tottenham be dragged into yet another relegation battle? Recent history certainly suggests those outcomes are all live — and, in Spurs' case, worryingly probable.

A huge asterisk hanging over the table

Any reading of the current standings comes with a major caveat. Manchester City have been found guilty of the majority of the Premier League charges levelled at them, and although the leaders have appealed, potential sanctions — should the guilty verdict stand — could have a significant impact on the table. Until that process concludes, the analysis can only deal with the table as it is now.

"It would be no surprise if Manchester City and Arsenal finish as the top two — outside of any points deductions or sanctions directed City's way."

Two-thirds of the table barely moves

Last season's evidence is striking. After five games, 13 of the 20 sides — 65% — went on to finish within four places of where they then sat. The eventual champions, Arsenal, were already second; Sunderland were already seventh and finished there eight months later; and two of the three relegated clubs were already in the bottom three.

The notable exceptions were Aston Villa and Tottenham, who effectively swapped ends of the table: Villa climbed out of the bottom three to finish in the top four, while Spurs slid to 17th.

Zoom out across the past 10 seasons and the pattern holds. Of 200 team campaigns, 138 — more than two-thirds — finished within four places of their position after five games, with 27 of those in exactly the same position 33 games later. Another 50 teams moved only between five and nine places. Just 12 sides in the past decade shifted by double digits after this point — and three of those came last season alone.

But top spot rarely settles early

One part of the table stubbornly refuses to settle: first place. The side leading the Premier League after five games has gone on to win the title in just one of the past six seasons — Manchester City doing so in 2023-24 — and only three times in the past 11.

City's flawless start, then, is no guarantee. They also won their first five games under Manuel Pellegrini in 2015-16 and in Pep Guardiola's first season in charge in 2016-17, but did not go on to win the title on either occasion — although they did in 2023-24. Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season were also top with a 100% record at this stage, but had little to show for it at the end of the campaign.

"Even the fact that Manchester City have five wins out of five so far does not mean much."

There is, however, a far more reliable title indicator: the eventual champions have been in the top two after five games in each of the last four campaigns — suggesting, potential punishments aside, that it will be Manchester City or Arsenal lifting the trophy. The last team to be outside the top two at this stage and still win the title were City themselves in 2021-22, when they sat fifth with just 10 points.

The top end can also crystallise remarkably quickly. The top eight after five games in 2024-25 finished the season as the top eight — albeit not in the same order — while the top six in 2019-20 and the top seven in 2016-17 were also already in place at this early stage.

Being bottom is a bad omen — and Tottenham are there

While being top after five games has counted for little in recent seasons, being bottom certainly has: the side propping up the Premier League after five games has been relegated in six of the past seven seasons. Step forward Tottenham, who finished just one place above the drop in each of the last two campaigns and now sit bottom on two points.

It was not always such a bad position to be in. Between 2013-14 and 2018-19, only one of the six sides bottom after five games ended up going down — Newcastle in 2015-16 — while Crystal Palace recovered from last to finish as high as 11th in 2017-18. Spurs' own precedent offers hope, too: the last time they were in this situation, in 2008-09, they were bottom with just two points after five games, but after replacing manager Juande Ramos with Harry Redknapp three games later they still finished in the top half, in eighth.

Is the relegation pool already decided?

Looking at the relegation battle more broadly, at least one of the teams in the bottom three at this stage has been relegated in each of the last eight seasons — so one of Tottenham, Fulham and Coventry, who hold a combined seven points, will very likely be heading to the Championship in May.

The pool of contestants for this season's scrap may already be set, too: the three sides that ultimately went down in each of the past three seasons were all in the bottom six after five games — which would add Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to the mix. The last teams to be outside the bottom six at this point but still relegated were Leeds and Southampton in 2022-23, when they both sat in the top half, in seventh and ninth respectively.

That is precisely the precedent Hull (eighth, eight points) and Ipswich (11th, six points) fans will be praying still holds at the end of this campaign.

While the season may well have barely begun, one thing is already clear: the Premier League table is starting to take shape.

Reporting based on BBC Sport and The Athletic standings data.