The Premier League is back, and with it comes the promise of those unforgettable moments — the last-gasp goals that shift the entire dynamic of a player's or club's season. Think Sergio Aguero's iconic title-winning strike for Manchester City in 2012, or Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson's astonishing headed winner against West Bromwich Albion in 2020. These are the moments that enter football folklore.

Football has now embraced the Americanism of calling those with a knack for scoring decisive goals 'clutch' players. Earlier this summer, champions Arsenal lost the man they dubbed 'Mr. Clutch' when Leandro Trossard departed for Turkish side Besiktas — leaving a significant void. But it also begged the question: who are the Premier League's most clutch players?

The Methodology

For a big enough sample size, the analysis focuses on players who have scored at least 20 Premier League goals since the 2021-22 season. The assessment of what makes a player 'clutch' is broken down into several components:

• Game-state changing goals: Goals that either put a player's team in the lead or equalised.
• Average goal value: Calculated using the percentage of time elapsed within the game and the type of game state-changing goal scored. A last-minute winner earns a value closer to two (the additional points earned from a one-point draw to a three-point win), while an equaliser just after half-time carries a value closer to 0.5, as there is still plenty of time for the scoreline to shift.
• Security goals: Goals that provide a two-goal cushion.
• Late goals: Goals scored after the 80th minute.

Game-State Changing Goals: The Surprising Names

Manchester City's Erling Haaland naturally features, but the list of most clutch players includes some more surprising names for casual Premier League watchers. The focus here is on the percentage of goals that have been game-state changing, rather than the total number.

While Liverpool's Alexander Isak has more game-state changing goals than anyone on the list (38), his sheer volume of goals since arriving in the Premier League at Newcastle United brings his percentage down. The real standout is West Ham's Tomas Soucek, whose less frequent scoring means his goals tend to be far more important — a remarkable 86 per cent of his 28 Premier League strikes were game-state changing. West Ham utilised Soucek's aerial prowess at set pieces, but he was far from a one-trick pony. Many of his goals came from well-timed runs into the box where he would show good feet before getting a shot away.

One player who will feature in the Premier League this season is Chelsea's Morgan Rogers, who is gearing up for arguably one of the most highly anticipated individual campaigns. At Aston Villa, 17 of his 21 goals were game-state changing. Though critics suggested his long-range goals were unsustainable, the 24-year-old outscored his expected goals (xG) tally in each of his Premier League seasons at Villa Park — 21 league goals from 14.7 xG, the eighth highest xG over-performance across the division since his debut in February 2024. Able to score decisive and spectacular goals, he may be the difference-maker Chelsea need to realise their Champions League qualification ambitions.

Harry Wilson: The King of Goal Value

Another player on the move between Premier League clubs this summer could prove vital elsewhere in the table. Leeds United signed Harry Wilson on a free transfer after the expiry of his contract with Fulham. The winger became increasingly valuable to the London side over the last two seasons, and of all the current Premier League players, the timing and type of game-state changing goals he has scored have carried the highest average value (0.74) in the last five years.

A turning point for Wilson came in November 2024. Fulham were 1-0 down against Brentford when he came on with eight minutes to play. The Wales international scored twice in added time to secure a dramatic win — two goals that encapsulated his contributions across his final two seasons at Craven Cottage.

Security Goals: Where the Heavy Hitters Enter

The discussion around clutch goals also accounts for those that give teams a two-goal cushion — goals that effectively change the state of a match. This is where the heavy hitters come to the fore.

Haaland has the highest total number of security goals (33), matching the exact percentage of Arsenal duo Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka. Each of those three has a bigger sample size than the man with the best ratio — Brentford's Igor Thiago — who will be fascinating to watch in his second full Premier League season. Of the eight league penalties Thiago scored last season, just three gave Brentford a two-goal lead, with their ability to break quickly on the counter proving more helpful in extending advantages (no Premier League team scored more than their nine goals from fast breaks last season).

Just five of the 20 league penalties Haaland has scored have delivered a two-goal lead, though 11 have been game-state changing. Five of Saka's Premier League spot-kicks have been security goals, and six have been game-state changing.

Late Goals: Timing is Everything

A major element of how 'clutch' a goal feels depends on timing — the later they come, the more vital they tend to be. For this analysis, late goals are defined as those scored after the 80th minute.

From a totals perspective, Yoane Wissa (12) and Son Heung-min (11) are the standouts. However, Bruno Guimaraes (30 per cent) and Darwin Nunez (28 per cent) have the highest share of late goals, with each player's numbers telling a compelling story.

All of Wissa's late goals came before he switched Brentford for Newcastle United, which made his lack of impact at St James' Park last season appear all the more drastic. Son's reliability late on has been sorely missed by Spurs, and the same could be said about Nunez, who frequently caused havoc towards the end of matches under Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool.

As for Guimaraes, whether Arsenal's scouts noted the timing of his goals during their pursuit of the midfielder remains an intriguing question. The one penalty he scored in these circumstances was an equaliser that sparked a late Newcastle comeback against Leeds last season, while three have been winners and three have been security goals.

Speaking about his new signing this summer, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta said: 'He's a goal threat. He's got a smell, and a really good timing to get in the box. And he has the capacity to finish the actions.'

Wilson making another appearance in the late-goals data may tell Leeds fans when to expect him to make a difference, while the same may well be true of Chelsea supporters and Danny Welbeck. Whether these players can maintain their clutch habits is just one of the many intriguing storylines that will underpin this new Premier League season.