Mercedes still set the pace, but Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren chase them down in 2026 data analysis

Mercedes remain the benchmark, but the chasing pack is closing in

Mercedes looked unstoppable at the start of the 2026 season, and while Kimi Antonelli still holds a commanding lead in the Drivers' Championship, the competition has tightened to the point where race winners have come from three other teams. The Silver Arrows still lead the Constructors' Championship by 134 points over Ferrari, but F1.com's analysis of the data shows how much their rivals have improved since the season opener.

Mercedes have claimed 11 of the 17 Grand Prix pole positions so far, with Antonelli taking six of those, one more than team mate George Russell. They have also been judged the fastest on ultimate qualifying pace, meaning their ideal lap built from their best sectors, in 13 rounds. However, they have dropped down the order in recent events. Max Verstappen's pole lap in Malaysia gave Red Bull their biggest advantage over Mercedes of the season so far, with Antonelli and Russell managing only P4 and P8.

Red Bull's turnaround and Ferrari's missed chances

Red Bull have enjoyed one of the greatest improvements. After a low point where they trailed Mercedes by more than 1% in Japan, they went on to beat the Constructors' Championship leaders, as well as Ferrari and McLaren, on ultimate qualifying pace in Round 16.

Ferrari, meanwhile, have missed opportunities in qualifying. In Singapore, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc had almost 0.2s on the rest of the field on ultimate pace, and could have dominated had they put their fastest sectors together. Instead, Verstappen took pole, and his ideal lap still was not as good as Ferrari's. Ferrari have been consistent across the season, but they have not had the outright fastest pace at any event apart from Singapore, which made it more painful to miss out on their first pole of the year.

McLaren's inconsistency

Of the top four teams, McLaren have arguably been the most up-and-down. The MCL40 had its best qualifying pace when Lando Norris returned to P1 in Hungary and the Netherlands, but a straight-line speed deficiency has largely explained the team's sudden decline following Norris's Madring success.

The midfield battle

Racing Bulls are the best of the rest on current form, but their qualifying journey has not been smooth, with significant downturns in Spain and Baku. Their high points came in Barcelona, Belgium and Italy, where one of their drivers reached Q3.

Alpine's standout moment came at Monza, where Pierre Gasly secured his first career pole position. He was perfectly placed in traffic in Q3 to benefit from a double slipstream on every straight, and the low-downforce conditions suited the team. Audi peaked in Barcelona, where Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto finished P9 and P12 in qualifying, and Italy. Haas have had some strong showings, including sixth-best qualifying pace in China, but their results have been erratic, with Monaco, Hungary and Bahrain their worst showings over a single lap.

Aston Martin, Williams and Cadillac at the back

Williams plummeted in Hungary, when rivals Aston Martin brought a significant package of 16 upgrades, before regaining some pace with their own updates in Baku. Aston Martin's upgrades were badly needed, as the team had dropped significantly behind for five rounds in Europe. They have generally improved since Italy and have moved back ahead of Cadillac.

Cadillac, the newcomers, have made progress too. They started the season with a deficit of more than 5% to Mercedes and reduced it to under 3% in Belgium, but they remain considerably adrift.

Race pace: Mercedes on top, but rivals have chances

On race pace, Mercedes have predominantly led, although not as clearly as on the qualifying data. McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull have all shown they can beat the leaders in this metric but have not always executed to their potential. According to F1.com, Mercedes would have nine wins rather than the 11 they have taken so far if their rivals had fully capitalised.

McLaren had superior optimal race pace in Miami, but Antonelli still won. Ferrari did convert their race pace into victories in Barcelona and Great Britain, and were level with Red Bull on race pace in Singapore, where Verstappen won by 7s over Leclerc. Red Bull have been the fastest team on race pace since Round 15 in Azerbaijan, though in Austria their advantage was not enough to overhaul Russell, as Verstappen's roughly 0.4s advantage fell short of the approximately 0.5s per lap needed for a 50% chance of a pass.

Alpine have had a rollercoaster season. They scored points in the first seven rounds despite a decline in race pace from Japan onwards, which bottomed out in Barcelona. Racing Bulls then found crucial performance to edge ahead of them.