Hot and dry forecast as Verstappen chases fifth COTA win at 2026 United States GP

Formula 1 heads to Austin this weekend for the 2026 United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of The Americas — the first stop on a triple header across the Americas. And if the weather holds to the current forecast, the drivers and teams will face familiarly hot, largely dry conditions as they tackle one of the calendar's most demanding venues.

Verstappen rides a winning wave into Texas

The Dutchman arrives in Texas in superb form, having won the most recent Grands Prix in Malaysia and Singapore. That surge has put him on a run few can match, and it looks as though he will again have to manage hot weather in Austin as he targets a fifth career victory at the track.

Last year's edition offered a glimpse of the challenge. A warm 2025 event saw Max Verstappen take a commanding victory to slash Oscar Piastri's lead in the standings, with the Australian settling for fifth place behind his McLaren team mate Lando Norris in second. The Ferrari pair of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton rounded out the leading order behind them.

Weekend weather breakdown

Friday, October 23 — FP1 and FP2

Friday is expected to be warm and dry. Daytime temperatures will range from 16°C to 29.5°C, with track temperatures peaking above 55°C. South to southeasterly winds will be moderate, averaging around 10 km/h with occasional gusts up to 30 km/h, and no rain is anticipated — ensuring ideal conditions for both practice sessions.

• Maximum temperature: 29°C
• Minimum temperature: 16°C
• Chance of rain: 0%

Saturday, October 24 — FP3 and Qualifying

Expect warm and dry conditions with building cloud cover through the day. Temperatures will range from 17°C in the morning to a high of 29.5°C in the afternoon, with track temperatures likely exceeding 55°C again given ample early sunshine. Winds will average 15 km/h, with gusts up to 35 km/h possible, and no precipitation is expected — keeping both the final practice session and Qualifying dry.

• Maximum temperature: 29°C
• Minimum temperature: 17°C
• Chance of rain: 0%

Sunday, October 25 — Race

The race-day forecast indicates favourable weather with increasing clouds. Expect a temperature range of 19°C to 27°C with only a 20% chance of rain as a storm system emerges across the Central U.S. Plains. That system may also increase southerly winds during the afternoon, with peak gusts of 35–40 km/h that could slightly impact vehicle performance. Track temperatures are projected to reach near 50°C but could trend higher with less cloud cover.

• Maximum temperature: 28°C
• Minimum temperature: 19°C
• Chance of rain: 20%

With three dry sessions all but guaranteed and only a slender rain threat for Sunday, tyre management on searing track surfaces — rather than the skies — looks set to define the strategic battle in Austin.