Roma Must 'Fight Until the End' for Champions League Spot, Says Gasperini

AS Roma head coach Gian Piero Gasperini has emphasized the need for his team to maintain focus and fight until the final whistle in their pursuit of a UEFA Champions League spot, ahead of a crucial Serie A clash against reigning champions Napoli.

Roma currently sit fifth in the Serie A table, level on points with fourth-placed Juventus and just three points behind third-placed Napoli with 14 matches remaining. Despite a recent 2-0 win over Cagliari that reignited their top-four hopes, Gasperini is urging his players not to ease off, stressing the competitiveness of Italy's top flight.

"We've always thought about our own path," Gasperini said. "This is a championship with different periods, with many teams involved. Inter has grown a lot, as have Juventus and Milan. Napoli has had good moments and some difficulties due to defections. After 24 matchdays, we're there. Then there's Como and Atalanta. But this is the Italian championship. Objectives and results aren't achieved with matches to spare; we have to fight until the end."

Champions League Dreams Hang in the Balance

The battle for the top four is tighter than ever. According to the Opta supercomputer, Roma have a 46.3% chance of finishing in a Champions League-qualifying position, though their most likely final position remains fifth (30.1%). With Napoli and Juventus looming as direct rivals, upcoming fixtures are pivotal.

Roma's next challenge is a daunting trip to Napoli's Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, where the Partenopei have been nearly unbeatable at home. Napoli are on a 22-match unbeaten streak in Serie A at home (W16, D6), their longest such run since 1988.

"These are undoubtedly two important matches," Gasperini acknowledged, referencing the Napoli and Juventus fixtures. "They're head-to-head matches and carry a higher value than other teams. They're always worth three points... They're important above all in light of what was said before, the ability to overcome certain teams."

Head-to-Head and Player Form

Napoli have lost just one of their last 12 Serie A meetings with Roma (W7, D4), with Roma's only win coming in December 2023. Additionally, Napoli have not lost a home league game against Roma in the last seven encounters (W4, D3).

On the player front, Rasmus Hojlund is emerging as a key threat for Napoli, having scored eight goals in 20 league appearances—just one shy of his tally from his debut Serie A season with Atalanta. Interestingly, Hojlund has a perfect 3-for-3 record against Roma.

For Roma, Donyell Malen is showing signs of impact since his arrival in January. The winger scored a brace in the win over Cagliari, bringing his tally to three goals in three games with an expected goals (xG) of 3.0, indicating he's performing in line with chance quality.

Statistical Challenges and Predictions

Roma face a tough test against top-tier opposition. They have earned just one point from five matches against the current top five teams this season, drawing with AC Milan in January, while scoring a league-low two goals in those games.

Another notable stat: Roma (7 wins, 5 losses) are one of only three teams across Europe's top five leagues yet to draw an away match this season—alongside Inter and Brentford.

Opta's prediction model gives Napoli a 39.7% chance of victory, with a draw at 30% and Roma at 30.3%. Despite the odds, Gasperini’s message is clear: Roma must believe and battle, match by match.