Manchester City found guilty of majority of 115 charges as Premier League braces for sanctions chaos

Manchester City have been found guilty of the majority of the financial rule breaches they faced in the Premier League's most explosive ever investigation — but far from closing the case, the verdict opens the door to months, and quite possibly years, of further chaos and uncertainty.

Two years and 10 days since the hearing began, and 1,329 days after City were charged, we now know a verdict has been reached, with the club guilty of the majority of the financial rule breaches from the 115 they faced. Remarkably, that is not because the Premier League or Manchester City have told us — it is thanks to The Athletic finding out and breaking the story. BBC Sport was later told the verdict was sent during the week to club executives, who had to sign a non-disclosure agreement to open the file.

A process can appear completely watertight, as this one certainly had been, but when the circle of trust is expanded, the chance of information getting out increases. Despite the leak, public silence from the Premier League continues. City did not address whether they had been found guilty in a statement making it clear — with an appeal expected — that the "process remains ongoing" from their point of view.

It all points to the suggestion that the long-awaited decision of the independent panel was not a case of this process nearing an end, but perhaps instead reaching the end of the beginning. City fans, and the rest of football, are left to guess what the punishment might be — and when this all might reach a definitive conclusion.

Why some form of points deduction now appears inevitable

The charges are so serious that some form of points deduction now appears inevitable, subject to the appeal City are expected to lodge — the club have always insisted they have done nothing wrong. When and how any punishment is applied will be crucial not just for City, but for the Premier League as a whole. And that is before we get to the prospect of clubs suing City for compensation.

Precedents offer only a rough guide. Everton were docked six points — reduced from 10 on appeal — and then two points in separate cases for breaches of profit and sustainability rules (PSR), while Nottingham Forest were deducted four points. Those were considered to be minor breaches. City, by contrast, faced seven separate charges of PSR breaches in the Premier League alone, as well as a further five related to Uefa competitions — before you get into the inflated sponsorship revenue allegedly channelled through the companies' accounts as a means of meeting financial fair play rules, payments to players and managers, and a failure to comply with investigations.

Take all this into account and it suggests a large points penalty — and it places an asterisk against the Premier League between 2009 and 2018, when two of the competition's most successful clubs, Chelsea and Manchester City, got around the financial rules to put themselves in a position to sign more expensive players than their finances should have permitted. While Chelsea admitted effectively cheating after self-reporting, City have now been found guilty.

Scenario one: nothing is announced this season on punishments

Deciding the punishment should be quicker than ascertaining guilt, but nothing is certain in this case. Because the charges have been denied, it will have to go to a sanction hearing convened by the independent panel — and BBC Sport has been told this hearing could still be months away, with the result potentially not published until the appeal is completed.

At that hearing, everything will be on the table: fines, points deductions and even demotion. It differs from Chelsea's case earlier this year, when the Stamford Bridge club self-reported and admitted guilt, allowing them to negotiate with the Premier League and reach a sanctioning agreement. It is possible City could decide to hold their hands up and try to agree a deal — which would be better for the league — though that seems unlikely given the club's consistently strong denials over many years. The panel will have to comb through the hundreds of pages of evidence and determine the punishment.

If this season passes with no decision on the sanction while it is known City were guilty of the majority of counts, what does that mean for the integrity of the competition? Could a penalty be backdated to this season when finally awarded? Unlikely. So what if Manchester City win the league — while Coventry, who sit third from bottom right now, finish in that position, are relegated, but would have stayed up had City's punishment come this season? This inertia is terrible news for the Premier League as a competition. There is a strong argument that a sanctioning agreement is the cleanest way out — but that may not be palatable to the league, who would have to negotiate with City, who would presumably want a lesser punishment.

Scenario two: punishment is levied this season but City appeal

The usual process when any points penalty is handed down is that it is applied immediately, subject to appeal. It could be a points deduction so large that it is effectively a relegation. Alternatively, if City's membership of the Premier League was revoked, it is unclear how that might be applied mid-season. It could also be that the punishment is a huge fine, although that would seem unlikely given the points deductions handed to other clubs.

The question would be how soon we hear, and how long after the appeal is heard. Usually, the league asks for an expedited process from the independent arbitration company which handles disciplinary cases — but, as ever in this case, the complexities indicate this is not straightforward. There is the chance, though slim, that the punishment is only applied to the league table after the appeal. That would surely lead to protests from the impacted teams this season, who would demand it come into effect immediately, as usual.

Scenario three: appeal heard quickly and full decision announced

For the integrity of the Premier League — so all clubs know what they are playing for — this would need to happen sooner rather than later. Last season, a points deduction for West Bromwich Albion related to breaches of profit and sustainability regulations was not announced until 24 April. While ultimately they stayed in the Championship, it plunged them back into a relegation fight when they thought they were safe, and gave hope to the teams in the relegation zone.

The Premier League does not want this dragging on until the penultimate month of the season — but nothing is guaranteed in this story. In this scenario, let's not forget City could also win their appeal, as they did over Uefa's punishment back in July 2020. While that would be celebrated at the Etihad Stadium, it would likely not be the end of the acrimony over the case.

Scenario four: even after the case is closed, this is not over

City won seven domestic trophies during the period of the alleged offences — and Premier League clubs are already seeking legal advice about compensation from Manchester City over the case. One source, who held a senior executive position at two Premier League sides, said they expected clubs to submit individual compensation claims against City, while another leading lawyer told the BBC that the process could even be centralised by the league. Premier League rules allow clubs to seek legal action against each other for compensation.

The timing looms over everything. Enzo Maresca's Chelsea go to Liverpool on 11 October when the Premier League resumes after the international break, and could go six points clear at the top — but is that now rendered meaningless? What was meant to bring clarity has instead guaranteed the uncertainty, and quite possibly the chaos, is only going to increase.