Kimi Antonelli's championship to lose as 2026 F1 season resumes at Zandvoort, Chandhok predicts

Formula 1's summer break is over and the 2026 season restarts in the Netherlands this weekend, with the championship run-in looming over the final months of the campaign. Ahead of the Dutch Grand Prix Sprint weekend at Zandvoort, Sky Sports F1 pundit Karun Chandhok has run the rule over the biggest questions left to be answered on and off track.

How many drivers still have a realistic title shot?

Kimi Antonelli's 50-point championship lead puts him firmly in the hunt, but a tight group covers Lewis Hamilton in second down to Lando Norris — winner of the last race in Hungary — in fifth. With two Sprints and up to 12 Grands Prix to go, there are potentially as many as 316 points left to play for between now and December.

Chandhok said: "I think, realistically, this is Antonelli's championship to lose. Nobody has come back from this big a points deficit since we went to this scoring system in 2010. Kimi is driving well, he has got a lot of confidence in the car and the way it's working for him.

"The only Achilles' heel seems to be Mercedes' reliability. That could be a challenge, but they are going to keep improving that. So realistically, I think it is his championship to lose, which is an extraordinary achievement in just his second year in F1.

"The only thing I would say is, with the way the upgrades and updates are going, it will be interesting to see what Ferrari can do, and also whether any of Mercedes' upgrades help George Russell out, because it does feel like he has had obviously more bad luck but also a pace disadvantage this year.

"I think it is only Lewis or maybe George who could challenge him, but it's more his to lose."

Which team is the one to watch for development?

In-season car development carries extra weight this year as teams remain in the early stages of unlocking performance from the all-new 2026 aerodynamic rules and engines. The first half of the season saw big jumps at races where teams brought updates — a trend expected to continue after the break.

"I'm interested to see what McLaren do. Clearly the car was very good in Budapest and that bodes well for the Dutch Grand Prix because whoever is good in Budapest should have a good car for Zandvoort," Chandhok said. "And they've got more bits coming this weekend on the rear end of the car as well, which is the second half of the update.

"The big one to keep an eye out for is Red Bull, because they have been a bit more inconsistent and there's a bit of a battle on for them to play catch-up. If you look at it across the season, they have had the fourth-fastest car, which is not ideal in terms of trying to keep Max happy and at the team.

"So, Red Bull are the ones I'm most interested in watching out for to see if they can dig themselves out of this hole in terms of inconsistencies."

Where will Max Verstappen end up driving for 2027?

Max Verstappen is contracted to Red Bull until the end of 2028, but sitting sixth in the standings at the summer break means he is free to activate a break clause for the end of this year should he wish. He is thought to have until October to tell Red Bull if he wants to leave, with links to McLaren and Mercedes should he continue in F1.

"I have no idea when Max will end up driving in 2027 but I think realistically, I don't think he knows yet either," Chandhok said. "I think he is waiting to see where the Red Bull goes and really what other options there are."

Will Fernando Alonso race on or retire for 2027?

Fernando Alonso said he would use the summer break to decide whether to extend his career into a record-extending 24th campaign. The Spaniard, who turned 45 in July and became a father for the first time this year, has played down suggestions his choice rests solely on Aston Martin's competitiveness.

"I think if Aston can demonstrate that they are going to make progress and Honda can demonstrate that they are making progress and they can give Alonso a car that at least gets him into Q3 and gives him something to fight for in 2027, then he will stick around," Chandhok said. "He is not going to stick around to be someone who gets knocked out in Q1 all the time."

How high will Aston Martin get up the grid?

Aston Martin were the clear underperformers of the opening half after chassis and Honda engine issues left them at the back. They delivered their first upgrade in Hungary and will introduce a long-awaited engine upgrade at Zandvoort.

"Aston Martin have got to get themselves in a position where they need to end this year at least occasionally getting into Q3 because that then lays the foundation for 2027 and beyond," Chandhok said. "The engine upgrades will be critical for that. If you look at their straight-line speed at Spa, it was shocking. They brought the updated chassis to Budapest and that seemed to give them some performance advantage, a decent step.

"So really with the engine advantage, they might occasionally sneak themselves into Q3, which would be good progress but more importantly, a good foundation."

How many drivers will win races over the remaining rounds?

F1 broke for summer on a run of five different winners in five races, with both Mercedes drivers, both Ferrari drivers and Lando Norris each taking a win. Chandhok expects more of the same.

"I think there is a chance we could see both Ferrari drivers, McLaren drivers and Mercedes drivers winning races, and Max," he said. "If Red Bull do upgrade well and bring good bits and pieces, then we could see Max winning. He wasn't that far off in Austria, and the car steadily made progress. They need a couple of jumps and they could do it."

What will Sepang be like on F1's return?

For the first time in nine years, F1 returns to the Sepang International Circuit in October after Malaysia agreed to host the Bahrain Grand Prix. Chandhok, who first raced there in 2001, is relishing the return.

"I love Sepang. I first raced there in 2001, which was my first year of international racing," he said. "I think it is a really interesting, challenging layout, good for racing. I'm delighted to see everyone going back there, albeit temporarily.

"I think we are going to see a fantastic race. For this year's cars, there are plenty of opportunities to harvest and recharge the batteries and energy around chunks of the lap, so it should be a pretty good race all round. It is going to be hot, so anyone who can keep the tyre temperatures under control will be in good shape."

Who will win the 2026 championships?

Antonelli's half-century lead at mid-season makes him the bookmakers' favourite ahead of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, who was most people's pre-season tip. Ferrari outscored Mercedes in each of the three races before the break and, with reliability on their side, are not to be ruled out.

"I think this is Antonelli's drivers' title to lose, and Mercedes' Constructors' Championship to lose," Chandhok said.

The season resumes with a Sprint weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix from Friday, with every session live on Sky Sports.