ODI rule change brings reverse swing back into the death overs

A new lease of life for the old white ball

A change to one-day international playing conditions is making the closing overs harder for batters. Since July 2025, captains have been able to choose, after 34 overs, which of the two white balls used in an innings will be used for the remainder. That ball then has 16 overs to become older and rougher, creating better conditions for reverse swing.

The early evidence points to a measurable shift. Since the change, half of pace bowlers’ full deliveries in the final 10 overs have swung by more than one degree, up from 35% in the 18 months before the rule was introduced. In ODIs over the same before-and-after comparison, pace bowlers’ economy rate in the final five overs has fallen from 8.40 to 7.95 runs per over, while their bowling average has dropped from 19.2 to 18.3.

England among the biggest beneficiaries

England’s ODI figures at the death have improved sharply since the rule change: their bowling average fell from 36.76 to 20.91, and their economy rate from 9.78 to 7.53. Their batting run rate in those overs also rose, from 8.07 to 9.16. The figures cover the period after the change and do not, on their own, establish that the rule was the only cause of the improvement.

After England lost to Sri Lanka at Headingley, coach Brendon McCullum told his players: “The game is slightly different now. The ball is playing a massive part.” Sri Lanka’s use of fuller deliveries helped secure a 16-run win, while England’s response at The Oval showed a different tactical possibility: they added 110 runs in the 10 overs before Sri Lanka selected its preferred ball.

Late movement is not uniform around the world

Several leading fast bowlers have found more movement with the older ball. Alzarri Joseph’s average swing at the death increased by 84%, while his bowling average improved from 24.1 to 17.4. Lungi Ngidi’s swing rose by 63.3%; his bowling average fell to 13 and his economy rate from 9.34 to six. Jofra Archer has averaged 0.97 degrees of late movement, a 37% increase.

The broader scoring picture is mixed. Australia, New Zealand, West Indies, South Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan have all scored more slowly in the death overs since the change; West Indies’ death-overs run rate declined by 2.39 runs per over. Conditions matter: the increase in late swing has been especially pronounced in England, while the rise has been more modest in Australia. Just three ODIs had been played in South Africa since the rule change at the time of the report, leaving too little evidence to forecast its effect there with confidence.

World Cup tactics in focus

The rule could encourage teams to attack earlier, before the selected ball has aged, and make fuller, swinging deliveries a more prominent weapon at the end of an innings. But the size of the effect will depend on local conditions, and the available figures are an early snapshot ahead of the next World Cup. England’s upcoming ODI tri-series with Pakistan and Sri Lanka offers another test of how batters and bowlers adapt.

Statistics cited were reported as correct before the Pakistan, Sri Lanka and England ODI tri-series.