Manchester City chase fifth straight WSL win as Arsenal arrive in crisis

City’s perfect start meets Arsenal’s faltering attack

Manchester City host Arsenal on Sunday with the WSL’s only 100% record and the chance to extend their winning start to five matches. Arsenal, last season’s closest challengers to City, have taken five points and scored only twice across their opening four league games, leaving them seven points behind the leaders.

The Opta supercomputer makes City favourites, giving them a 49.7% chance of winning. Arsenal’s chance is rated at 25%, with a draw at 25.3%. Avoiding defeat would be important for Arsenal if they are to keep their title hopes alive.

City’s home strength and attacking numbers

City have won their first four league matches against Birmingham City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Charlton Athletic, scoring 12 goals. Their 12.2 expected goals (xG) across those four matches is second in the WSL this season, behind Chelsea’s 12.4. Defensively, however, City’s expected goals against (xGA) tally of 3.96 has been bettered by three teams.

They have also won each of their last 14 home WSL matches. Only Chelsea have put together a longer home winning run, with 22 consecutive victories between March 2022 and February 2024.

Sunday could be a milestone for City captain Alex Greenwood: a start would mark her 200th WSL appearance. She would become the competition’s 10th player to reach that total and, if she starts, surpass Gemma Bonner’s record of 192 starts in a player’s first 200 WSL outings.

City and Arsenal have a closely contested WSL rivalry. Arsenal lead their head-to-head record 12 wins to 11, with two draws, across 25 meetings. Arsenal won the most recent encounter, 1-0 at the Emirates in February, through an Olivia Smith goal. City’s last home meeting with Arsenal was a 3-2 win on October 4, 2025, settled by Iman Beney’s 88th-minute strike.

Arsenal need to turn chances into goals

Arsenal’s slow league start has been compounded by unconvincing attacking performances. They lost 1-0 to Chelsea last weekend after registering 0.79 xG, then let a 2-0 lead slip in a 2-2 Champions League draw with Paris FC on Wednesday. In that match, Arsenal recorded 1.16 xG from open play, compared with Paris FC’s 1.44.

Across the first four WSL matchdays, Arsenal scored twice from 6.64 xG, an underperformance of 4.64. Their reported shot-conversion rate is 2.56%, while nine of the league’s 14 teams have scored with at least 10% of their shots. The Gunners have also gone three league games without a win; another match without victory would leave them with their second-worst start to a WSL season after five matches.

Alessia Russo, Mariona Caldentey, Stina Blackstenius and Chloe Kelly are all still seeking their first WSL goals of the season. Russo scored in the midweek draw in Paris, while Blackstenius has a strong record against City: she has scored or assisted in each of her last five WSL appearances against them, including four goals and two assists in that run.

Wide players could shape the contest

Lauren Hemp has created nine chances after carries of at least five metres in the WSL this season, more than any player other than Arsenal’s Lisa Baum, who has five. Hemp, Baum and Lauren James are tied for the league lead in shot-ending carries, with eight each, setting up a potentially influential battle out wide.