Goals are rising — but so is the waste

Goals are on the up in the Premier League. The average of 2.70 non-penalty goals per game in 2026-27 is higher than last season and two of the four previous campaigns. Yet the Guardian's data analysis argues fans "should have been even more royally entertained." Matches have averaged 2.88 non-penalty expected goals, the second most in the past six seasons. "Chances have been going to waste," the analysis notes.

If the 20 teams had converted at the par rate, there would have been almost two extra goals per week — a small-sounding figure, but one that points to a broader malaise across the division.

A record rate of stalemates

The most striking symptom is the scoreboard. "The proportion of games drawn is higher than in any past Premier League season," the article reports. Some of those tied matches "might have been settled had the finishing been up to the mark."

Underperformance is widespread

This is not a problem confined to one or two clubs. "Fourteen clubs have scored fewer goals than expected, whether penalties are included or not, up from 10 last season." Of the rest, "there are eight teams that are within a goal of their underlying numbers and may see an immediate change of fortunes this weekend, [while] the remaining 12 are split 8-4 towards the underachievers."

The rot is visible week by week as well as in season-long averages. "There were 24 instances of a team scoring at least one goal fewer than their xG implied they should have across the first five match weeks, twice as many as occurred in the opening 50 games last season."

Explanations are scarce in the data. Chance quality "does not appear to be one of them," with expected goals per shot barely moving. Volume of penalty-area touches has "barely shifted" either, with a Premier League team averaging 24.8 touches in the opposition box per game, down just 0.6 on last season.

Context: the xG landscape

The shortfall comes against a backdrop in which expected goals remain a useful barometer of quality. BBC analysis on 23 September 2026 found Arsenal leading the Premier League xG table despite suffering their biggest defeat in three years at Brighton, with Manchester City close behind.

Why it matters

The Guardian cautions that the pattern need not persist. "Excessive reliance on players who can be forgiven for underperforming could prove to be a small-sample statistical quirk that is quickly remedied. Until it is, do not bank on the goal rate reaching the expected goal level in the Premier League."