Arsenal lead Premier League xG table despite biggest defeat in three years

Arsenal top underlying numbers despite Brighton hammering

Champions Arsenal may have suffered their biggest defeat in three years last weekend at Brighton but they have still been the best team overall based on expected goals difference, according to BBC analysis of the opening five games of the Premier League season.

Leaders Manchester City are not far behind them in terms of how much they have dominated their games, while there is nothing fortunate about unbeaten Brentford’s impressive start to the season.

"While any statistics should be taken with a pinch of salt - given such a small sample size of games and the fact that some teams have had more difficult starts than others - they do provide a more accurate picture of how the season could unfold," the BBC notes.

Form vs reality

Expected goals tells us how much teams have dominated games, based on the number and quality of shots they have taken and faced. Basically, how well they have performed before finishing, shot-stopping and plain old luck come into play. Penalties are excluded to avoid distortion from refereeing decisions and defensive clumsiness.

Manchester United constantly seem to flip between feast and famine, when often they have simply been fine. Despite their underwhelming start, only three teams have a higher xG difference so far. The likes of Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have also been better than their position in the early table suggests.

At the other end, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have been the least impressive in terms of their overall performance, with the latter perhaps the most surprising given their position in the top half.

It is still early days, so there is no need to panic just yet, but it shows those teams have a lot of room to improve - something Villa did to great effect after a slow start last season by finishing fourth. Worryingly for established sides, the promoted teams seem like they will not be going down without a fight, with both Hull and Ipswich making genuinely solid starts to the campaign.

Attacking numbers

Looking at teams numbers going forward, Brighton have the best attack so far based on the number and quality of chances they have had, followed by Manchester City, Brentford and Manchester United.

Although the Gunners are more admired for their defensive prowess, it is surprising that eight teams have a higher xG than champions Arsenal, while Liverpool and Chelsea also rank in mid-table.

Brighton not only have the highest xG but have also been one of the most ruthless sides in front of goal, scoring 15 non-penalty goals from their 10.7 xG. The only team to be more clinical than the Seagulls is Newcastle, who actually have the lowest xG in the league so far.

Newcastle have scored twice as many goals as a team historically would given the chances they have had - 9 goals from 4.5 xG - but head coach Matthias Jaissle will no doubt want his team to create more and not have to rely on such sharp finishing as the season goes on.

In contrast, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have all scored three goals fewer than they really should have given the opportunities they have had in their first five games.

Defence and the takeaway

Arsenal are renowned for their defence and they still have by far the best backline in the league - even taking their heavy defeat by Brighton into account.

While Forest head coach Oliver Glasner has work to do to get his side scoring goals, he has already instilled a solid foundation to build from at the back, as has Andoni Iraola at Liverpool.

There is a lot of construction work needed in the capital as Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have all been far too open at the back so far this season, although Xabi Alonso’s side are not quite as terrible as the 12 goals they have conceded suggests.

Brighton’s brilliance going forward has come at the cost of them not being particularly solid in defence, with Fabian Hurzeler’s team perhaps a little fortunate not to have conceded more often. Everton and Leeds have also conceded three goals fewer than expected given the chances they have faced, although both sides have been among the strongest defensively overall.

Just five games into the new campaign, it is too early to be making any concrete claims about how sides will perform but their underlying numbers have given a glimpse of what might be in store this season.