"The journey goes on!" That was Gianni Infantino's cheery sign-off at the 2026 FIFA Congress in Vancouver in April, when he confirmed he would stand for re-election next year — with everyone in the room expecting him to do so unopposed for a third and final full term through to 2031. There was a sense of certainty about FIFA's future then. Not anymore.

The ill-fated attempt to sell a 21 per cent stake in FIFA's commercial and event operations to a private investment fund has seen the ground crumble beneath Infantino's feet. UEFA and others have publicly declared confidence lost in his leadership, allies and advisers have jumped ship — and the presidential election scheduled for March 2027 in Morocco suddenly looks far less like a coronation.

How often does FIFA change its president?

Rarely. Since French journalist Robert Guerin took office as FIFA's first president in 1904, only nine men have held the increasingly powerful position — and Infantino is just the third since the mid-1970s, after Joao Havelange and Sepp Blatter racked up more than 40 years in the role between them. It was Blatter's downfall amid a storm of corruption allegations that prompted FIFA to cap presidential terms at 12 years in 2016, the year Infantino swept to power.

Infantino has been able to work around that limit by arguing his initial three-year term should not count towards the cap, giving him the chance to reach 15 years in the job with re-election next spring. FIFA stages its elections every four years at the Congress following a men's World Cup — but in an illustration of the grip Infantino has typically enjoyed, neither the 2019 nor the 2023 edition required an actual vote. Both were approved by acclamation, without a ballot.

The last meaningful contest came in 2016, when Infantino — who entered the race after Michel Platini's exclusion due to alleged corruption — defeated four rivals: Prince Ali bin Hussein, Sheikh Salman Bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa, Jerome Champagne and Tokyo Sexwale. He needed a second round of voting to overhaul initial favourite Sheikh Salman, eventually winning with 115 votes. Until the events of the past week, his position had become one of total strength.

How do the elections work?

A FIFA presidential election effectively runs for a full year, from one Congress to the next. Any candidate must have "played an active role in association football" for two of the previous five years, pass an eligibility check carried out by a FIFA committee and — crucially — secure declarations of support from at least five member associations by the deadline, which falls on November 18 this year. Each association may back only one candidate, a detail given extra edge by the symbolic withdrawal of support for Infantino by members including Wales and England in recent days. This was, after all, a man who claimed earlier this year to hold pledges from 200 of the 211 associations.

Five backers open the door, but far more is needed to win. FIFA's statutes require a simple majority of over 50 per cent in a two-horse race — 106 votes out of 211. Every vote counts the same: the Spanish FA wields no more power than the Seychelles, and Argentina's carries the same weight as Aruba's. Looking after the smaller nations has been central to Infantino's popularity. If more than two candidates stand, the opening round requires a two-thirds majority, with further rounds held until a winner emerges.

The confederation maths

The backlash from three confederations presents Infantino with an unprecedented problem. UEFA's 55 associations have declared their opposition, while the Asian Football Confederation (46 votes) and Concacaf (35) have also been fiercely critical of the now-scrapped plans. In theory, that is more than enough to bring down a sitting president — but there is no bloc voting, and no guarantee every member follows its confederation's line. Qatar, an AFC member, has publicly said it "fully supports" Infantino. The cautionary precedent is 2016, when Sheikh Salman enjoyed the public backing of the Asian and African confederations — theoretically more than 100 associations — yet saw his vote fail to climb above 88 in a secret ballot.

Who could challenge Infantino?

Any rival has 16 weeks to build a coalition before the November 18 deadline. The name generating most excitement is Victor Montagliani, the Concacaf president and FIFA vice-president who The Athletic understands is seriously considering a first challenge to Infantino in more than a decade. Montagliani has long been tipped as a successor — though the assumption was always that his moment would come after 2031, when Infantino's fourth and final permitted term would end, rather than next year.

UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin is a longstanding antagonist of Infantino, opposed to almost everything the FIFA president has done in recent years, though attention is more likely to focus on a unity candidate Europe can get behind. One name can already be crossed off: Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Paris Saint-Germain president and UEFA Executive Committee member who had been tipped as a potential candidate, ruled himself out on Saturday. "Mr. Al-Khelaifi has absolutely no ambition, no intention and no interest in the FIFA role and all this media noise, and instead will continue to quietly and constructively support all the institutions of world and European football," his spokesperson said. Other names will surely emerge.

The emergency route — and why Morocco matters

The vote was formally pencilled in for Morocco in March 2027, deciding who leads FIFA into its centenary World Cup across six countries in 2030. The venue was seen as significant twice over: Morocco harbours ambitions of staging the 2030 final ahead of co-hosts Spain, and Infantino has traditionally drawn strength from CAF, African football's governing body. FIFA chose Kigali, Rwanda, for its acclaim-filled 2023 election.

But the timetable itself is now under threat. An emergency meeting of FIFA's Council could be triggered if a majority of its 37 members lose faith in Infantino — or, perhaps more likely, an emergency Congress can be demanded by a fifth of member associations. UEFA alone, with 55 votes, has the numbers to force one, paving the way for a possible vote of no confidence in the president.

It would be a twist drenched in irony: an emergency congress is what brought Infantino to power 10 years ago. The coming days and weeks will determine whether another one is what finally brings him down — but one thing is clear: FIFA's next election no longer carries the guarantees it once did for Gianni Infantino.