Opta forecasts title defence for Inter

The 2026-27 Serie A season is set to open with Inter hosting newly promoted Monza and Como travelling to Udinese on 22 August. The Opta supercomputer, based on 10,000 data-led simulations, makes Inter favourites to retain the Scudetto won last term under Cristian Chivu.

Inter are given a 35.1% chance to lift the trophy again after winning the league by 11 points in 2025-26 with 89 goals scored. Chivu has added serial winner John Stones on a free transfer from Manchester City to strengthen the defence, with Stones scoring on his debut in a pre-season friendly against Real Betis.

Closest rivals

Roma are the model’s second favourites with a 12.7% title probability. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side qualified for the Champions League last season and have extended Paolo Dybala’s contract for another year while making Donyell Malen’s loan from Aston Villa permanent. Malen netted 14 goals in 18 Serie A appearances last term.

Como, managed by Cesc Fabregas, are given a 13.6% chance. The club secured historic Champions League qualification last season and kept star creator Nico Paz, who directly contributed to 18 goals in 2025-26 with 12 goals and six assists.

Juventus sit on 11.4% after missing the top four in 2025-26 under Luciano Spalletti. The Bianconeri have added promising teenager Kerim Alajbegovic and welcomed back Randal Kolo Muani to the squad.

Champions League race

Inter, Roma, Como and Juventus are backed to qualify for the Champions League. Napoli, now under Massimiliano Allegri, have a 38.3% chance to return to Europe’s elite, with Kevin De Bruyne’s fitness flagged as key after a thigh injury disrupted last campaign. Atalanta, under Maurizio Sarri, are given a 34.9% top-four likelihood, while Milan, led by Ruben Amorim, are at 30.8% after signing Goncalo Ramos from Paris Saint-Germain.

Relegation picture

Monza, promoted via the Serie B play-offs, are tipped to struggle with a 43% chance of relegation in the simulations. Former Milan and Fiorentina striker Patrick Cutrone has joined permanently from Como. Frosinone are also vulnerable at 40.6%, while Venezia and Lecce are projected to fight for the final drop spot.