Women's Super League Matchday 19 Predictions: Derbies and Title Race Heat Up
Women's Super League Matchday 19 Predictions: Derbies and Title Race Heat Up
The Women's Super League is set for a thrilling Matchday 19, featuring three high-stakes derbies that could shape the title race and the battle against relegation. League leaders Manchester City have the chance to move 11 points clear with a victory over Manchester United in the Manchester derby, while Everton host Liverpool in the Merseyside clash and Arsenal face Tottenham in North London. Defending champions Chelsea travel to Aston Villa, West Ham meet London City Lionesses, and bottom-placed Leicester take on Brighton. The Opta supercomputer has simulated 10,000 scenarios to predict outcomes across this pivotal weekend.
Everton vs. Liverpool: Merseyside Derby Kicks Off the Action
The weekend begins at Goodison Park with the Merseyside derby between Everton and Liverpool, as both sides seek a return to winning form. Everton fell 2-1 to Manchester United last time out, while Liverpool drew 0-0 with Brighton. The Opta supercomputer favors the hosts, giving Everton a 44.4% win probability, Liverpool 28.7%, and a 26.8% chance of a draw.
Everton's strong record against Liverpool underpins this prediction: they have won 10 WSL games against the Reds, more than any other opponent, and remain unbeaten in their last eight league meetings (W6 D2) since a 3-1 loss in May 2019. The Toffees have also secured their last two home WSL wins and could achieve three straight home victories for the first time since July 2011, which included a 1-0 triumph over Liverpool.
Liverpool did beat Everton 2-1 in the recent Women's FA Cup fifth round, but they haven't won consecutive matches against their rivals since a four-game streak from July 2015 to September 2017.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City: Title-Clinching Derby?
The marquee matchup sees second-placed Manchester United host leaders Manchester City at Old Trafford. United haven't played since a 5-2 win over Tottenham, while City lost 3-2 to Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarter-final first leg. Fresher legs could benefit City, especially with star striker Khadija Shaw nearing a historic milestone.
Shaw has 80 league goals for City, joint-most for a single club in WSL history alongside Arsenal's Vivianne Miedema. Two more goals would make her the first player to reach 20+ in three seasons (21 in 2023-24, 20 in 2022-23). Recent derbies have favored City, who won only two of 12 WSL meetings (D4 L6) for United, including the reverse fixture 3-0 in November. A win would secure City's second straight WSL double over United since 2023-24.
United, under Marc Skinner, are unbeaten in nine WSL games (W6 D3) since that November defeat—their longest run since 14 games in December 2020 and 13 in November 2023. They've scored 37 goals this season, second only to City's 52, and aim for multiple goals in six straight home games for the first time.
The supercomputer predicts a City win in 41.9% of simulations (extending their eight-point lead), United at 32.6%, leaving Chelsea and Arsenal as the only mathematical threats if City prevails.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham: North London Rivalry Renewed
Arsenal, fresh from a 3-1 Champions League quarter-final win over Chelsea, host Tottenham at the Emirates. The Gunners boast a 78.7% win probability, Tottenham 8.4%, and a draw 12.9%.
Arsenal have dominated, winning nine of 12 WSL games against Spurs (D2 L1), scoring 33 goals while conceding four in North London derbies. In 2026, they're unbeaten in five games (W4 D1), averaging 2.6 points—their best start to a year since 2017.
Tottenham lead the league in away goals (20) but have conceded 20 on the road, second-worst after West Ham (21). They've lost four of their last six WSL games (W2), more than in their first 12 under Martin Ho (W7 D2 L3). Bethany England could make her 200th WSL appearance, tying for most London derby goals (18 with Beth Mead), though she hasn't scored in her last five North London derbies.
West Ham vs. London City Lionesses: Relegation Scrap
West Ham, three points above the drop zone, face London City Lionesses. West Ham's poor record against promoted sides (38% win rate in 16 games) includes a 1-0 loss to London City earlier. The Lionesses have three away wins this season (all outside London), matching the most for a promoted team except West Ham's five in 2018-19.
However, London City are winless in four WSL games (D1 L3) and have just five points in 2026 (W1 D2 L4). West Ham have lost all seven London derbies this season and could match the record eight-game losing streak. The supercomputer gives West Ham a slight 37.7% win chance, London City 35.9%, draw 26.4%.
Chelsea vs. Aston Villa: Champions Seek Bounce-Back
Chelsea, after their European loss, visit Aston Villa aiming to solidify third. They've struggled post-Champions League this season (W2 D2 L1 in five games), a dip from last year's seven wins in nine. Their title defense has faltered at 2.06 points per game, the worst since 2014, with points dropped in seven of 18 matches.
Against Villa, Chelsea are unbeaten in 11 WSL games (28-2 aggregate), the most one-sided record alongside their 13 wins over Tottenham. Villa have never led Chelsea and trailed at half-time in three of five away games versus the Blues.
Villa's Kirsty Hanson has 10 top-flight goals, second to Shaw's 18 and the second Scottish player to hit double digits after Kim Little. Despite a recent comeback win over Leicester, Villa have just a 5.8% win chance to Chelsea's 84.2%.
Leicester City vs. Brighton: Survival on the Line
Relegation-threatened Leicester host Brighton at King Power Stadium. The Foxes have an 81.5% relegation probability and a 34.1% win chance here, versus Brighton's 40.1%.
Brighton have won three of the last four WSL games against Leicester (L1) but are winless in four (D1 L3), their longest since seven games between December 2024 and March 2025. Leicester have lost six straight WSL games since a 1-0 win over London City in December, their worst since 10 defeats in 2022.