Fresh from lifting the Community Shield once again, Arsenal enter a new Premier League campaign with the kind of optimism that has become familiar around the Emirates. But if history is any guide, Mikel Arteta's side should be cautious about reading too much into the Wembley showpiece.

The Community Shield, contested between the previous season's Premier League champions and FA Cup winners, is often dismissed as a glorified friendly. For Arsenal, it has rarely been a reliable omen for the campaign that follows. Across their previous nine victories in the curtain-raiser, the Gunners have gone on to lift the Premier League title only once.

The Invincibles Exception

The only time a Community Shield victory preceded a league title came in 2003, when Arsenal beat Manchester United on penalties following a 1-1 draw. What followed was the greatest league season in the club's history: an unbeaten 2003-04 campaign that earned the side the nickname “The Invincibles” and delivered a third Premier League crown.

A History of Near Misses

More often, the Shield has been followed by agonising near-misses. In 1998, after beating Manchester United 3-0, Arsenal finished second the following season, edged out by United by a single point. The 2002 winners, who defeated Liverpool 1-0 at the Millennium Stadium, were runners-up again in 2002-03. The 2004 holders lost the title to Jose Mourinho's Chelsea after finishing second, and the 2015 winners were famously pipped to the title by Leicester City in one of football's most improbable title races.

The Post-Shield Slumps

The most sobering chapters came in 2017 and 2020. A penalties victory over Chelsea in 2017 was followed by a sixth-place finish, while the 2020 shoot-out win against Liverpool preceded an eighth-place campaign that cost the club European qualification. Even the more recent 2023 triumph over Manchester City — also sealed on penalties — could only be followed by another second-place finish, as City pipped the Gunners on the final day of a tense title race.

A Table of Omens

What the Numbers Say

Put simply: in the nine previous seasons that began with Community Shield silverware, Arsenal have finished second five times, third once, sixth once and eighth once, alongside that solitary title. Only once in nine attempts have they converted the August showpiece into the trophy they crave most.

With the new campaign now under way after this month's penalty shoot-out victory over Liverpool, the question is whether Arteta's side can finally break the pattern — or become the latest to discover that the Community Shield, for all its glamour, carries little weight when silverware is handed out in May.