Two of European football's most-watched forward situations are spiralling into full-blown standoffs, as Ollie Watkins and Julian Alvarez both find themselves at war with the clubs they want to leave — each at a different, and increasingly uncomfortable, stage of separation.

Unai Emery says only Ollie Watkins can explain why he was not in the Aston Villa squad that lost 4-0 at Brighton & Hove Albion on the opening weekend of the Premier League season. “Ask him,” Emery suggested. “I only can answer it by silence.” Emery would mention “commitment” twice when responding to two other questions from Sky Sports, and also used the words “focus” and “motivation” during the same interview.

Watkins has not spoken publicly about his absence, but on Friday The Athletic reported that his club had rejected a fresh offer of around £45m ($61.4m) from Saudi Arabian side Al Hilal for the 30-year-old. You do not need the instincts of Lieutenant Columbo to interpret roughly what is going on here, or to appreciate what modern football might call the “direction of travel”. Suffice to say, it would be a surprise if Watkins adds to his 108 goals in 278 appearances for Villa. The question is whether the situation gets messier before that happens.

Alvarez jeered in Argentina

By comparison, Julian Alvarez is trying to force his way out of Atletico Madrid, having admitted during the World Cup that he wanted to “fulfil his dream” of an exit — most probably to Barcelona. Only last week Barcelona claimed they had moved on to other targets after Atletico refused to negotiate.

Alvarez missed Atletico's opening-day victory over Malaga due to fitness, according to manager Diego Simeone, but he was jeered when he was announced as a substitute ahead of a 2-2 draw with Villarreal, receiving a similarly hostile reception when he was introduced midway through the second half. At the final whistle, he headed straight for the changing room, with Simeone attempting to clear up the reaction.

“Staff told me that the club decided Julian should not go over with his team-mates to greet the fans, and that it was not Julian's decision,” the Argentine told reporters.

One manager done, another still holding on

In each case, the participants appear at different stages of their divorce. Simeone clearly has an interest in keeping the player, or at least ensuring he has an option of such quality available throughout the season, but Emery's silence might suggest he no longer sees Watkins as his responsibility.

These positions conflict to some degree with the attitudes of supporters. While a chunk of Atletico's fanbase sounds like it has already moved past holding the player, surely increasing the chances of Alvarez getting what he wants, the mood at Villa — a club that has already lost an array of stars over the summer — is different. If no deal for Watkins materialises, a rebuilding of trust could be as straightforward as the centre-forward scoring an important goal and everyone falling in love again.

A morality tale with a forgiving audience

Just look at Jean-Philippe Mateta at Crystal Palace, who pulled every lever he could to force a move to Milan in January, was booed when he returned (the switch collapsing after a medical raised concerns over a knee injury), and was then hailed as a hero when his goal won Palace the Conference League in May. Mateta started at Everton on Saturday, despite still being in dispute with the club over the legal validity of the final year of his contract.

Players can be forgiven for all sorts of nonsense if they a) continue to perform, or b) the club has no better alternative in their position. There is a temptation to see players pushing for such moves as something new, but you only have to think about how Villa's relationship with Dwight Yorke ended to realise some impressions of the good old days are false.

Unlike Watkins, Yorke turned out for Villa on the opening day of the 1998-99 campaign but, according to his manager John Gregory, he “never moved an inch” during a goalless draw at Everton. “He (Yorke) sulked for 90 minutes,” Gregory claimed in a 2024 interview with the Under the Cosh podcast, concluding that a lack of effort was “part of his plan”. Gregory famously said of Yorke's subsequent transfer to Manchester United that “if I'd had a gun, I would have shot him”, but the messy divorce worked out for a striker who formed a devastating partnership with Andy Cole and won the treble in his first season at Old Trafford.

The cautionary counterweight

Both Watkins and Alvarez need only look at Newcastle United's 2-2 draw with Liverpool to know that pushing aggressively to get out of a club carries genuine risk. Last summer, Liverpool's purchase of Alexander Isak for a British transfer record was brokered after the player went on strike, but he arrived at Anfield without a structured pre-season having made a summer training camp and has since struggled with fitness and injury beside the net. Isak scored only three league goals for Liverpool in a season cut short by one too many absences.

The circumstances behind Yoane Wissa's transfer to Newcastle from Brentford were similar to Isak's: the DR Congo international returned to London from his old club's summer training camp in Spain after making it clear he wanted to move on. Like Isak, he would release a statement calling out alleged unfulfilled promises. While Isak toiled again for Liverpool at St James' Park and has much work to do to justify the hassle that brought him to Merseyside, Wissa arguably delivered his best Newcastle performance to date, setting up his team's second goal in the 2-2 draw.

That the bar is so low for Wissa should be a reminder to those trying to follow his example. They may spend so much energy and emotion trying to get to where they really want to be that they are in no position to contribute if and when they do make the move.